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physics.data-an

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability

Methods, software and hardware for physics data analysis: data processing and storage; measurement methodology; statistical and mathematical aspects such as parametrization and uncertainties.

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physics.ins-det 2026-07-03

Single-PMT timing improves IceCube flavor classification

by R. Abbasi, M. Ackermann +417 more

WavePID: Low-energy flavor identification using single-PMT time series in IceCube

A template log-likelihood classifier using nanosecond observables adds information missing from morphology-based neural networks.

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The IceCube Neutrino Observatory, a cubic-kilometer detector at the South Pole, identifies neutrino flavor through event morphology. Sparse photon detection makes this classification particularly challenging in the 5--100~GeV regime, the energy range relevant for oscillation measurements and searches for physics beyond the Standard Model. We introduce WavePID, a template-based log-likelihood-ratio classifier that exploits nanosecond-scale timing on individual detector modules through three observables: the distance to the reconstructed vertex, the early-charge fraction, and the module-to-module time difference. Evaluated on a cascade-enriched sample selected by a state-of-the-art graph neural network, WavePID improves both cascade purity and classification performance over the neural network alone. This demonstrates that per-module pulse timing carries flavor-identification information complementary to morphology-based classifiers, opening a new physics-motivated observable for low-energy neutrino reconstruction. Geant4 simulations associate this signal with differences in Cherenkov emission geometry between muon tracks and electromagnetic showers. These results motivate exploiting nanosecond-scale pulse timing in future low-energy classifiers and in detector designs with improved per-module timing in next-generation neutrino telescopes.
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hep-ex 2026-07-02

Exponential mixtures match existing methods for LHC background modeling

by Austin Townsend, Marc Osherson +2 more

Modeling Falling Backgrounds with Exponential Mixtures

Tests on datasets of 28.6 million and 5,000 events plus simulations show small bias and consistent coverage.

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Searches for new physics at the LHC often look for localized excesses on smoothly falling background distributions. Several classes of background models have been considered, including polynomials and other parametric families; however, these approaches can require extensive analysis-specific development as datasets grow. In this work, we motivate the finite exponential mixture as a flexible semi-parametric class of functions for approximating falling distributions, drawing on results from extreme value theory. Using two published datasets ($n=28,619,185$ and $n=5,036$), we show that the exponential mixture performance is comparable to existing methods for both small and large datasets. Finally, in simulation studies ($n = 5,036$), we find that the finite exponential mixture exhibits small bias relative to the true statistical uncertainty while maintaining consistent nominal coverage in the bulk.
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nucl-th 2026-07-02

Spin femtoscopy isolates genuine two-particle spin correlations

by Kehao Zhang, Xuan Wang +1 more

Spin Femtoscopy: A Framework for Revealing Genuine Spin Correlations

Lambda-Lambda correlation functions with controlled singlet and triplet content separate true spin signals from quantum-statistical and inte

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Spin correlations are among the most fundamental quantum observables in many-body systems, yet they remain difficult to access experimentally in relativistic heavy-ion collisions. Existing spin measurements, including hyperon polarization and vector-meson spin alignment, have revealed important single-particle spin phenomena, but genuine two-particle spin correlations in the produced hadronic system remain largely unexplored. Here we propose spin femtoscopy, a framework for accessing genuine two-particle spin correlations through spin-resolved femtoscopic measurements. The key principle is that different two-particle spin configurations can give rise to different femtoscopic correlation functions because of quantum statistics, spin-dependent final-state interactions. Using $\Lambda\Lambda$ pairs as a proof of principle, we exploit the self-analyzing weak decay of $\Lambda$ hyperons to construct spin-sensitive femtoscopic correlation functions with different singlet and triplet admixtures. We show that these observables provide experimental access to the spin-state populations of the pair and allow genuine spin correlations to be separated from spin-dependent femtoscopic mixing caused by quantum statistics and final-state interactions. This work extends femtoscopy from a probe of source geometry and final-state interactions to a framework for revealing the quantum spin structure of strongly interacting matter.
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astro-ph.HE 2026-06-30

Offset magnetic field fits pulsar double-peaked profile

by Farhana Taiyebah, Constantinos Kalapotharakos +7 more

Multipolar Magnetic-Field Inference for PSR J0740+6620 with Neural-Network-Accelerated NICER Pulse-Profile Modeling

Neural surrogates enable 11D inference showing zero-offset model is disfavored for PSR J0740+6620 within the vacuum multipolar basis.

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We investigate the multipolar surface magnetic-field structure of the high-mass millisecond pulsar PSR J0740+6620 using the 32-bin bolometric NICER pulse profile of Dittmann et al. (2024). Building on the neural-network surrogate framework of Olmschenk et al. (2025), we model the emitting regions as open-field-line footpoints of an offset dipole plus axisymmetric quadrupole static vacuum field, rather than as prescribed geometric hotspots. We fix the stellar mass, radius, observer inclination, and hotspot temperature ratio to the Dittmann et al. (2024) maximum-likelihood values and explore the resulting 11-dimensional magnetic-field space. To make this feasible, we train convolutional neural-network surrogates on $5.12\times10^7$ synthetic bolometric light curves and use them in a parallel ensemble Markov Chain Monte Carlo calculation on 4000 CPU cores, accelerating likelihood evaluations by a factor of $\gtrsim 400$. We perform independent inferences for two calibrated temperature-weight prescriptions, Tw=1.31 and Tw=1.41, encoding the relative bolometric weight associated with the hotspot temperature difference. The posteriors, posterior-predictive light curves, and maximum-likelihood values are very similar, indicating weak sensitivity to this choice. The offset model reproduces the observed double-peaked profile and yields broad, multimodal posteriors, reflecting both the background-dominated data and degeneracies of the multipolar parameterization. The hotspot-density map shows that pulse phases constrain the approximate azimuthal placement of the emission, while latitude, surface extent, and morphology remain weakly constrained. A restricted zero offset run is disfavored within the adopted field basis. This work extends neural-network-accelerated magnetic-field inference to PSR J0740+6620 and motivates future energy-dependent, force-free, and joint X-ray/$\gamma$-ray extensions.
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quant-ph 2026-06-30

Modular stages let spin-qubit arrays stay stable at scale

by Justyna P. Zwolak, Anthony Sigillito

Overcoming Configuration Bottleneck: Modular Pathways to Stable Semiconductor Spin-Qubit Arrays

Five workflow modules with defined interfaces and aggregate metrics replace ad-hoc tuning for larger devices.

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Over the past decade, semiconductor spin qubits have progressed from few-qubit demonstrations towards larger-scale devices fabricated in increasingly reproducible academic and industrial processes. This progress marks an inflection point: the central challenge is no longer to demonstrate high-fidelity operation in carefully tuned devices, but to discover, verify, and maintain stable operating conditions reliably across many interdependent controls, varied device geometries, and disparate material platforms. In this Perspective, we frame spin-qubit operation as a modular automation problem. We decompose the workflow into five modules: bootstrapping from minimal prior information, configuration tuning, virtualization of physical gates into effective control axes, qubit-level tuning, and an operation layer with drift-aware maintenance. Using recent demonstrations from our work and the broader community, we argue that scalability will depend on explicit interfaces between modules, standardized intermediate data products, and workflow-level metrics such as throughput, success probability, stability time, recovery time, and robustness. We close by outlining the infrastructure needed to move beyond isolated tuning demonstrations toward sustained operation: qubit-performance-aware feedback, reusable software and benchmark tasks, and tight collaboration among experimental, theoretical, and software efforts.
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stat.ML 2026-06-30

Factorizable flows learn each parameter's density effect in isolation

by Davide Valsecchi, Mauro Donegà +1 more

Factorizable Normalizing Flows for parameter-dependent density morphing

Effects are summed at inference to handle any combination without sampling the full joint space, keeping cost linear in the number of parame

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Normalizing Flows excel at modeling a single fixed density, yet many problems across the sciences, such as high energy physics, instead require modeling how that density deforms as a function of continuous parameters: the strength of a physical effect, a calibration constant, or a source of systematic uncertainty. Learning a separate flow for every parameter configuration quickly becomes intractable, since the number of joint settings grows exponentially with the number of parameters. We introduce Factorizable Normalizing Flows (FNFs), which represent the parameter-dependent density as a fixed, high-fidelity flow for a reference configuration composed with a learnable transformation that is polynomial in the parameters and factorized over them. This structure has a practical consequence: each parameter's effect is learned in isolation, from samples in which that parameter alone is varied. The combined response of many parameters is then recovered by summation at inference, without ever sampling their combinatorially large joint space. On a controlled problem with two interpretable deformations applied jointly to the data, the learned transformation reproduces the true deformations and matches the optimal likelihood, while optional interaction terms capture residual correlations when several parameters vary strongly at once. The resulting model is interpretable, scales linearly with the number of parameters, and keeps the likelihood tractable. This provides a general tool for any inference workflow requiring continuous density morphing, and directly enables the next generation of unbinned likelihood fits in high energy physics.
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physics.ins-det 2026-06-30

Merged targets boost momentum resolution on new topologies

by Katharina Schäuble, Alessandro Brusamolino +2 more

Detector-aware target definitions for full-event particle reconstruction

PF-aware merged targets from calorimeter showers improve response and robustness when particle composition and event structure differ from t

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Hit-level ML-based particle reconstruction methods have recently shown promising results. However, the reconstruction models are currently provided with targets that are unaware of the detector geometry and its resolution, resulting in training ambiguities. This can introduce a dependence on sample priors and reduce robustness under changes in event topology. We study the effect of a detector-aware target definition in the context of end-to-end Particle Flow reconstruction using a generic GEANT4-based detector simulation. We introduce the concept of detector-aware targets built from calorimeter showers with a hit-based merging algorithm based on cell-wise energy sharing that takes into account the spatial resolution of the detector. This includes a Particle-Flow-aware variant that preserves charged-particle consistency. Using a fixed GNN-based reconstruction model, we show that merged targets improve physics performance on a training-like sample. More importantly, models evaluated on an independent sample with different particle composition and topology show improved momentum response and resolution when trained with PF-aware merged targets. Our results show that removing experimentally non-resolvable target structure enhances not only reconstruction performance, but also improves model robustness against process-dependent variations in event topology.
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cs.LG 2026-06-30

Scalar embedding retains Lyapunov exponents from neural training

by Pedro Jiménez-González, Miguel C. Soriano +1 more

Scalar Representations of Neural Network Training Dynamics

Low-dimensional time series from parameter trajectories reconstruct sensitivity to initial conditions and decorrelation times in high-dimens

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Training in artificial neural networks can be viewed as a trajectory evolving through a high-dimensional loss landscape. However, the large number of trainable parameters makes the direct analysis of these dynamics challenging. In this work, we treat such training trajectories as temporal networks and apply recently proposed strategies for the scalar embedding of temporal networks. We investigate whether such a scalar embedding provides a meaningful low-dimensional representation of neural network training dynamics. Using a multilayer perceptron trained on the MNIST classification task, we show that the embedding preserves the main dynamical features observed in the original parameter space, including the emergence of sensitivity to initial conditions for specific learning rate regimes and an accurate reconstruction of the network's maximum Lyapunov exponent. We then use the embedded scalar trajectory to define a characteristic time, analogous to a Lyapunov time, after which the exponential separation between initially close embedded trajectories saturates. This characteristic time captures the typical decorrelation time between initially close network trajectories in the original high-dimensional system. Finally, we investigate the statistical organization of asymptotic training states through a spacing observable defined in the embedded space. We find that the distributions of rescaled asymptotic spacings collapse onto a common form across initial conditions and are compatible with a skew lognormal distribution. Altogether, our results suggest that scalar low-dimensional embeddings provide a useful framework for studying and visualizing the dynamical properties of neural network optimization trajectories.
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physics.app-ph 2026-06-30

TDA extracts phase from saturated light scattering

by Timothy Holt, Maxim Goryachev +1 more

Probing Light-Matter Interaction with Topological Data Analysis

Scattering data analysis reveals symmetry classes and degrees of freedom without clean peaks or undistorted lineshapes.

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We explore application of Topological Data Analysis to study light matter interaction through scattering response data in different dimensions. This method is robust against Fano resonance backgrounds in both strong and weak coupling regimes, maintaining accuracy even with reduced mode contrast, distorted lineshape, and the introduction of random trace noise. It scales to any number of interacting modes, reflecting the system's effective degrees of freedom. Crucially, TDA is not merely peak counting but reveals phase-encoded features in the scattering response and may be used even for a fully saturated amplitude response. The analysis is also applied to a three mode system with time reversal symmetry breaking, revealing change in apparent number of loops and voids in combined two way scattering data. This approach is demonstrated to differentiate the three Dyson ensembles through their topological complexity and probability density functions, enabling analysis of complex modal systems.
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physics.data-an 2026-06-30

Squeals flag poor model fits while users drag curves

by Andrew Gelman, Andrew H. Jaffe +2 more

The Squealer: Sensification of model exploration and model misfit

An unpleasant sound grows louder as the curve moves away from the data, turning visual inspection into an immediate sensory check.

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We introduce a method for visual and auditory feedback when exploring the fit of a model to data. Starting with a best-fit curve fit to data, the user can drag the curve to a new position and the computer will emit a squeal, becoming louder and more unpleasant as the discrepancy between curve and data increases. We demonstrate with four examples: a two-parameter curve fit to golf putting data, a four-parameter curve fit to dilution assays, a fit to cosmological data sensitive to the parameters of the Big Bang model, and a nonparametric Gaussian process fit to temperature readings.
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physics.ao-ph 2026-06-30

Log-ratio rule sets best timing to sample rare weather events

by Justin Finkel

Routes to rare events with optimally timed perturbations: a Tent Map is all you need

In the Tent and Logistic maps the advance split time equals the log of rarity over perturbation size, replacing ad hoc choices in extreme-ev

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Extreme weather events are difficult to understand for the same reason that they are dangerous: they happen rarely, catching victims unprepared when they do occur and scientists unable to assess risks confidently, given such limited precedent to learn from in the real world and high computational expense to simulate more examples. Rare event sampling (RES) algorithms seek to reduce this expense by forcing simulations more directly towards the extremes and then compensating for that forcing in statistical analysis. But the performance of RES hinges on several hyperparameter choices which are ad hoc in practice, and must be better understood if RES is to be broadly useful. This paper addresses one particular parameter, the \emph{advance split time} (AST), which prescribes when to perturb a simulation to split off the most informative possible ensemble of alternative extreme event scenarios. We prescribe the optimal AST as the time it takes for an initial perturbation to amplify into the size (inverse rarity) of the extreme event being targeted. For the Logistic and Tent maps, two archetypal examples of one-dimensional chaos, we rigorously derive and express the rule as a simple log-ratio between perturbation size and event rarity. The pair of examples also illuminates where the rule breaks down, and subsequently, we generalize the rule into a maximum-entropy criterion that solidifies recent heuristic and empirical results. Despite the idealized setting, our results deliver theoretical clarity that can anchor future developments of principled RES methods applicable to real-world, high-impact weather and climate extremes.
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cs.LG 2026-06-29

RNN forgetting can follow power law from dynamics coupling

by Lorenzo Livi

Anti-Collapse Dynamics and the Emergence of Multi-Time-Scale Learning in Recurrent Neural Networks

Heavy-tailed training fluctuations balance pull to short scales, sustaining long time scales with polynomial data needs.

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Long-range learning is hard for recurrent networks trained with stochastic gradient descent, because the influence of a past input fades with the lag $\ell$, and if it fades too fast the dependence cannot be learned from finite data. This fade is captured by an envelope $f(\ell)$. An exponential fade makes the data needed to learn a lag-$\ell$ dependence grow exponentially, putting long horizons out of reach; a power-law fade keeps the cost polynomial. We show that the asymptotic decay class of $f(\ell)$ is not fixed by the architecture. Instead, it emerges from the coupling between the state dynamics and parameter dynamics, settling into either a collapsed regime (fast, exponential forgetting) or an extended, anti-collapsed regime (slow, power-law forgetting). The intuition is a competition within these coupled dynamics. Training drives the network's effective time scales toward short ones, while rare, heavy-tailed fluctuations of the learning dynamics push a few of them to very long values. The extended regime survives only when these heavy-tailed pushes are strong enough to balance the pull. We make this mathematically precise with a coarse-grained stochastic process and prove exactly when the extended regime exists. A single exponent, the spectral exponent~$\beta$, then governs both the spread of time scales and how slowly the network forgets. Realizing the regime in practice needs one more ingredient: the joint action of the architecture and the optimizer must be able to hold such a broad spread. A network whose capacity to generate broad time-scale spectra is severely constrained still collapses, even when supplied with strong heavy-tailed forcing. Heavy-tailed fluctuations thus act not as noise to be suppressed, but as the mechanism that sustains long-range learning.
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physics.bio-ph 2026-06-29

Microbes generate spontaneous flows to cut cooling energy use

by Nilanjan Mondal, Soumitree Mishra +1 more

Engineering Collective Microbial Dynamics for Sustainable Thermal Management

Review finds motile microorganisms create density-driven plumes that boost heat transfer without pumps or external forcing.

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The rapid growth of energy-intensive technologies, including artificial intelligence, large-scale computing, and thermal management systems, has intensified global energy demand amid accelerating climate change. Meeting these demands requires innovative, low-carbon thermal management strategies that improve energy efficiency while minimizing environmental impact. This review revisits the underexplored phenomenon of bioconvection, a self-organized fluid motion generated by motile microorganisms, as a bio-inspired approach to sustainable heat transfer. Drawing on studies from natural ecosystems and laboratory experiments, we synthesize current knowledge of microorganism-induced hydrodynamics, pattern formation, and thermofluidic transport to assess the feasibility of harnessing bioconvection for thermal management. We further support this assessment through quantitative analyses of the thermal performance of bioconvective systems and discuss this in the framework of relevant non-dimensional numbers. By generating spontaneous convective plumes through density stratification, motile microorganisms enhance heat and mass transfer without external mechanical forcing. These self-organized flows provide a promising route toward hybrid bio-engineered cooling systems that reduce pumping energy, disrupt thermal boundary layers, and improve heat transfer efficiency. We conclude the review with the key challenges on the way to practical implementation, including microbial stability, material compatibility, controllability, scalability, as well as integration with existing cooling technologies. Finally, we identify critical research directions spanning heat transfer, microbiology, and nonlinear fluid mechanics within the broad context of sustainability, positioning bioconvection as a promising strategy for environmentally responsible thermal management in an era of rapidly increasing energy demand.
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physics.ao-ph 2026-06-29

Natural processes mask human CO2 emission signals regionally

by Yogesh Bali, Darja Cvetković +8 more

Investigation of regional variations in CO₂ growth rates : Integrating Emission Inventories and Atmospheric Observations

Atmospheric data integration shows 2020 reductions not reflected due to biosphere and transport dominance over local emissions.

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Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) growth rates reflects the combined influence of anthropogenic emissions, biospheric carbon exchange, and climate variability. While climate mitigation is primarily evaluated using bottom-up emission inventories within political boundaries, there is a need to validate these emission reductions using atmospheric measurements. Here, we present a global top-down analysis of atmospheric CO2 growth rates using CAMS atmospheric CO2 reanalysis, EDGAR anthropogenic emissions, GOSIF dataset and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) as a measures of biospheric activity, to quantify the relative influence of human and natural drivers. We find that atmospheric CO2 growth rate varies substantially across space and time but is dominated by natural carbon-cycle processes and global background trends. Anthropogenic emission signals are frequently masked by natural variability, making regional top-down detection of human emission changes difficult. The COVID-19 emission reductions in 2020, despite occurring during a neutral ENSO year, were not consistently reflected in regional atmospheric CO2 growth rates, highlighting the dominant roles of biospheric dynamics and atmospheric transport. Using unsupervised clustering and persistence analysis, we identify five characteristic carbon-cycle regimes. Spatial averaging removes much of the regional variability, leaving large-scale climate as the dominant control in most regimes. The active biosphere is the main exception, where strong biogenic signals persist, underscoring the critical role of tropical forests in shaping atmospheric CO2 variability.
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cond-mat.stat-mech 2026-06-26

Kinetic energy in potential recovers exact velocity distributions

by Benjamin J. A. Héry, Lucas Tepper +1 more

Comparison of different exact generalized Langevin equations with a non-linear potential of mean force and an observable-dependent mass and friction

For observables obeying Wick's theorem, one exact GLE form matches the joint distribution from the potential term alone.

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The Mori-Zwanzig projection formalism constitutes a powerful and robust framework for deriving equations of motion in terms of generalized Langevin equations (GLEs) for an arbitrary observable using evolution and projection operators. Based on this framework, we analyze the properties of four distinct GLEs for a scalar observable including a Markovian force derived from a generally non-linear potential, a non-Markovian friction force, and an orthogonal force, commonly interpreted as a random force. While all four GLEs are exact, they differ in the memory friction kernel, which may either be dependent or independent of the observable, and by the potential, which may either include or exclude the effective kinetic energy of the observable. Inclusion of the kinetic energy in the potential is advantageous for observables whose velocity satisfies Wick's theorem, since this reproduces the correct distribution of the observable and its velocity even without contributions from the friction force and the orthogonal force.
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cs.LG 2026-06-26

KANs match MLPs on airfoil pressure prediction with less complexity

by Miguel Jaraiz, Fermin Gutierrez +5 more

Kolmogorov Arnold networks (KAN) for aerodynamic prediction: a comparison with MLPs and GNNs

Graph networks do better overall but KANs train quicker, though they need careful tuning to avoid instability.

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Kolmogorov Arnold networks (KAN) have recently been introduced as a (deep) neural network architecture whose trainable parameters adapt the activation functions, instead of the coefficients of the affine transformations at the core of traditional architectures such as deep multilayer perceptrons (MLPs). This architecture builds on the Kolmogorov-Arnold theorem, which endows it with universal approximation properties. While the advent of KANs has been received with excitement, there is a current debate about the possible KAN supremacy over deep multilayer perceptrons (MLPs) for classic fields such as symbolic regression, generic-purpose machine learning, natural language processing or computer vision. Here we assess the performance of KANs --and its nuanced comparison against MLPs and graph neural networks (GNNs)-- in the realm of fluid dynamics surrogate modelling. To that aim, we consider the task of predicting the surface pressure distribution over subsonic and transonic airfoils, a canonical task in aerodynamics. Our results show that KAN models show good performance in predicting the whole pressure coefficients and is able to interpolate across Mach numbers and angles of attack, however its performance is comparable --marginally inferior-- to a suitably trained MLP, where best performance is achieved by a GNN at the expense or requiring lengthier training. While the optimal KAN model have typically much lower complexity than MLP and GNN --hence resulting in faster training--, we find that KANs suffer from training instabilities, and their performance is highly dependent on a proper hyperparameter optimisation.
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nlin.CD 2026-06-26

Poisson process yields Gamma law for Collatz upward phases

by Weicheng Fu, Xiaobin Liu +1 more

Emergence of Gamma-Type Upward-Phase Statistics in the Collatz Map: An Effective Poisson Process Mechanism

Scale stays fixed at 11.61 while shape grows with log of starting value; cycles remain tightly constrained.

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The Collatz map is a simple deterministic transformation whose orbit structure remains highly nontrivial. A recent direction-phase decomposition partitions each orbit into upward and downward steps, and numerical observations indicate that the number of upward phases, $N_{\uparrow}$, follows an approximate Gamma distribution. In this work, we provide a mechanistic explanation for this statistical regularity by modeling the occurrence of upward phases in the odd-compressed, or Syracuse, version of the Collatz map as a homogeneous Poisson process. From the mean-field logarithmic balance and the geometric distribution of $2$-adic valuations, we derive closed-form expressions for the Gamma parameters: the scale parameter $\theta = 2/(2-\log_2 3)^2 \approx 11.61$ is constant, whereas the shape parameter $K$ grows logarithmically with the maximal initial value $X_0=2L+1$. We also analyze the closure conditions for periodic orbits, showing that nontrivial cycles are severely constrained, which supports the plausibility of the statistical framework. Numerical validation for $L$ ranging from $10^5$ to $10^{15}$ confirms the theory with relative errors below $3\%$, and a bias-corrected mean estimate reduces the error to $10^{-3}$--$10^{-2}\%$. These results establish a quantitative link between the arithmetic properties of the Collatz map and Gamma-type statistics, and suggest possible extensions to generalized Collatz-type problems.
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cond-mat.mtrl-sci 2026-06-26

Monotonic Bayesian learner maps saturation curves in seven measurements

by Pouyan Navabi, Christos G. Takoudis

Shape-Constrained Bayesian Active Learning of Self-Limiting Saturation Curves

Shape constraints eliminate unphysical dips and reach noise-floor accuracy across five kinetic families where random sampling succeeds in on

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Self-limiting saturation curves, monotone responses that rise from zero to a plateau, govern gas adsorption, enzyme kinetics, dose-response pharmacology, and the growth per cycle of atomic layer deposition (ALD), yet mapping each curve from a handful of costly measurements is a shared bottleneck. The standard surrogate, a stationary-kernel Gaussian process, enforces no shape constraint: on sparse, noisy data it produces unphysical dips that corrupt both the inferred curve and the uncertainty used to choose the next experiment. We present an active-learning platform built on Bayesian monotonic I-spline regression, in which every posterior curve rises from exactly zero and never decreases, the plateau is set by a measurement at maximum exposure rather than a prior, and the input at any saturation level is read from the posterior by level crossing with no kinetic model assumed. Benchmarked isotherm by isotherm on five kinetically distinct families (Langmuir, dissociative Michaelis-Menten, sigmoidal Sips, logarithmic Elovich, and dispersive Kohlrausch-Williams-Watts), with ALD process development as the working example, the same fixed surrogate recovers every curve to within measurement noise without a single non-monotone posterior draw, and noise-free sweeps show the basis itself is near-exact across each family's regimes, locating its single capacity boundary at the sharpest sigmoidal onset. Driven by ordinary uncertainty sampling, the platform reaches noise-floor accuracy within a 20-measurement budget in every regime, in as few as seven measurements, whereas random sampling succeeds in only two of the five; the predicted pulse times err only on the conservative side, toward longer pulses, near saturation. Because the basis privileges no kinetic form, the platform applies wherever a self-limiting response must be learned from scarce data.
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physics.data-an 2026-06-25

ML models in physics face the same questions as classical ones

by Rikab Gambhir, Luisa Lucie-Smith +1 more

Interpreting "Interpretability" and Explaining "Explainability" in Machine Learning in Physics

Interpretability and explainability become deliberate design choices rather than fixed model traits, with task specification guiding the tra

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We review the concepts of interpretability and explainability as they apply to machine learning in physics. We define interpretability as concerning the structural transparency of a model (the ability to understand or approximate its inner workings) and explainability as concerning the scientific content of a model (the ability to map it onto domain knowledge). We discuss the trade-offs each entails (interpretability vs. expressivity; explainability vs. adaptability), the contexts in which each is needed, and the intrinsic and post-hoc tools available for achieving them. Throughout, we emphasize that machine-learned models are subject to the same scientific questions as classical models, differing only in scale, and that interpretability and explainability are best understood as deliberate modeling choices rather than inherent properties. We also emphasize the importance of task specification and intervention plans as a core aspect of model design.
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cs.LG 2026-06-25

GPU optimizer recovers every mode on 42 functions to dimension 64

by Ira Wolfson

chisao{}: A GPU-Native Parallel Optimizer for Multimodal Black-Box Functions via Convergence-Anticonvergence Oscillation

CHISAO freezes confirmed peaks via oscillation while the rest explore, succeeding where CPU baselines lose modes above dimension 8.

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Finding all modes of a multimodal black-box function is a fundamental challenge in optimization, Bayesian inference, and scientific computing. Existing approaches -- basin-hopping, CMA-ES, multistart gradient descent -- operate sequentially and cannot exploit the massive parallelism of modern GPU hardware. We introduce \chisao{} (\textbf{C}onvergence-\textbf{H}alt-\textbf{I}nvert-\textbf{S}tick-\textbf{A}nd-\textbf{O}scillate), a GPU-native population optimizer that runs an entire sample batch simultaneously and exploits a deliberate convergence-anticonvergence oscillation cycle to escape local traps while freezing confirmed modes. The structural move is asymmetric: samples that reach true peaks are frozen (``stuck'') and preserved, while the rest keep exploring via momentum-based anti-convergence and stochastically smoothed gradients. Adaptive reseeding via two complementary strategies (Repulse Monkey and Golden Rooster) maintains population diversity throughout. On all 42 functions of the Simon Fraser University optimization benchmark suite across dimensions $d \in \{2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64\}$, \chisao{} achieves \textbf{100\%} mode recovery where all CPU baselines collapse at $d \geq 8$ on the hardest multimodal functions, at up to \textbf{$34\times$} speedup over basin-hopping on functions where all methods succeed (Michalewicz $d=64$) and up to \textbf{$39\times$} on unimodal functions (Rotated Hyper-Ellipsoid $d=64$, pure GPU dividend). All benchmarks evaluate the objective by value alone -- gradients come from finite differences -- so the reported speedups are a derivative-free worst case. Under substantial likelihood noise ($\sigma_{\mathrm{noise}}$ up to 1.0), mode detection remains 100\% reliable. The algorithm is available as a standalone open-source Python package on PyPI.
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physics.soc-ph 2026-06-24

Brownian motion sets recurrence thresholds for multiscale climate data

by Béatrice Désy, Nicholas R. Golledge +2 more

Wasserstein recurrence networks for multiscale time series pattern analysis

1-Wasserstein distances supply scale-invariant local-minima thresholds that flag events spanning two orders of magnitude in irregular record

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Time series data are often generated by systems which operate on multiple temporal scales, of which Earth's climate system is a paramount example. Variations in global climate are recorded in paleo-environmental archives as temporal patterns across a wide range of time scales, from seasonal or decadal to multi-millennial. In this context, recurrence analysis, where repeating patterns are identified in time series, is limited by the underlying properties of the distance function used and of the time series data themselves, especially in terms of temporal resolution and scale dependence. In this paper, we present a novel recurrence analysis framework designed for multiscale time series data with abrupt changes and irregular temporal resolution as found in paleoclimate records. We introduce a simple mathematical transform to use the $1-$Wasserstein distance for recurring pattern detection in time series. The scale invariance of $1-$Wasserstein distance distributions between patterns in Brownian motion is demonstrated numerically, which provides a principled threshold choice for recurrences. At any time scale, recurrences are defined as local minima of the distance, granted that they are below a threshold given by the probability of encountering patterns at least as similar in one-dimensional Brownian motion. Recurrences can be further combined according to a non-overlapping condition to yield a distinct set of multiscale recurring events. We provide examples of climatic applications from ice-rafted debris and ice core records, where detected recurrences have durations spanning over two orders of magnitude. Our method extends recurrence analysis to more complex time series data and provides new avenues for statistical identification and analyses of recurring events at multiple temporal scales.
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astro-ph.IM 2026-06-24

Bayesian unfolding recovers gamma-ray spectra with uncertainties

by A. H. Mj{o}s, E. Lima +3 more

Empirical-Bayes Unfolding of γ-ray Spectra

Empirical-Bayes model preserves Poisson statistics, handles background jointly, and matches frequentist results in high- and low-count cases

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Unfolding observed $\gamma$-ray spectra is an ill-conditioned Poisson inverse problem. Detector response effects and finite energy resolution make distinct non-negative emitted $\gamma$-ray spectra nearly indistinguishable after forward mapping, so direct inversion can strongly amplify statistical fluctuations. Here, we present an empirical-Bayes hierarchical unfolding method that preserves the Poisson counting structure, enforces non-negativity, and incorporates background through a joint ON/OFF likelihood. The prior on the emitted spectrum is centered on an automatically selected Richardson-Lucy reference spectrum, with an adaptive width that remains broad in weakly constrained regions. Posterior inference is performed with the No-U-Turn Sampler, and simultaneous uncertainty bands are reported for the resolution-limited unfolded spectrum. Our Bayesian method provides a robust and extensible framework for uncertainty quantification in unfolding, and a direct comparison with a recent frequentist regularized maximum-likelihood method gives highly consistent unfolded spectra in representative high- and low-statistics cases.
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q-bio.NC 2026-06-24

Clustering assigns new cytokine profiles to inflammatory groups in cNORSE

by Linon Denis, Martin Guillemaud +3 more

Graph-based analysis of inflammatory profiles in New Onset Refractory Status Epilepticus (NORSE)

Method returns most likely group, probability, and confidence score from 96-cytokine panels measured in 62 patients.

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Background and Objectives: Cryptogenic new-onset refractory status epilepticus (cNORSE) represents one of the most severe forms of status epilepticus, occurring in patients without prior neurological disease, and remaining of unknown aetiology despite extensive diagnostic evaluation. Emerging evidence supports a role for immune dysregulation in cNORSE; however, marked heterogeneity in inflammatory signatures has been reported, complicating the selection of targeted immunotherapies. Therefore, a critical need for tools facilitating the interpretation of cytokine panels exists. Methods: Building on the identification of distinct inflammatory groups of cNORSE patients using a graph clustering approach applied to a cohort of 62 patients with serum profiling of 96 cytokines, we tailored new models to quantify attribution probability to biologically validated clusters. Statistical assessment of the most informative model involved Monte-Carlo simulations and custom-developed parametric tests. Ultimately, we applied our framework to the implementation of a clinician-friendly interface for inflammatory profiling. Results: Our approach enables quick processing of several cytokine profiles, providing the most likely inflammatory cluster, associated attribution probability, and statistical confidence. For longitudinal assessments, the proposed method may also allow tracking the evolution of inflammatory trajectories over time. Conclusion: Systematic statistical characterization of the inflammatory heterogeneity in cNORSE requires the development of clinically actionable support tools. Our study offers a framework that may support personalized immunomodulatory strategies in cNORSE patients through clustering-based cytokine profiling.
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0
cs.SI 2026-06-24

IQP circuits trade optimization performance against circuit connectivity

by Quoc Chuong Nguyen

Discovery of connectivity-trainability trade-off of IQP Circuits for Hamiltonian Optimization

Systematic tests show structure controls success at reaching low-energy states in Hamiltonian problems.

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Instantaneous Quantum Polynomial-time (IQP) circuits are promising candidates for near-term quantum advantage due to the conjectured classical hardness of their sampling task. However, their capabilities for optimization remain largely unexplored. We present a systematic investigation of the performance and trainability of IQP circuits for Hamiltonian optimization. Our results reveal a trade-off between optimization performance and circuit connectivity, demonstrating that the circuit structure plays a key role in determining the ability of IQP circuits to reach low-energy states.
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0
astro-ph.IM 2026-06-23

Machine learning reshapes search for life beyond Earth

by Caleb Scharf

Astrobiology in the Time of Artificial Intelligence

It combines multi-scale data and creates adaptive sampling to raise sensitivity in astrobiology missions.

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The Viking missions showcased multiple spaceflight technologies representing state-of-the-art capabilities: from digital line-scan imaging to the operation of complex onboard laboratories and software-controlled process autonomy. Since Viking, there have been extraordinary, and still accelerating, advancements in computing technology impacting science, society, and exploration. These developments have occurred in both hardware and software, resulting in increasingly capable devices, advanced programming tools, and algorithmic innovations. The subset of artificial intelligence known as machine learning has emerged as one of the most transformative of these developments, with major implications for space exploration and for improvements to the search for evidence of life beyond the Earth. Those improvements include the integration of data across different scales and increased sensitivity to complex features in data, as well as the generation of adaptive strategies for sampling environments. In this paper, the present and future nature of space exploration and astrobiological research is examined through the contextual lens of Viking, and through the history and possible future of artificial intelligence.
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0
cs.LG 2026-06-23

Symbolic transforms flatten Fisher info to cut simulations 10x

by T. Lucas Makinen, Deaglan J. Bartlett +2 more

The Degeneracy Distillery

Degeneracy distillery resolves parameter degeneracies from simulations alone without observed data.

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When two or more parameters or labels produce similar data, they are degenerate, or hard to distinguish. Degeneracies render both label prediction and inverse problems difficult, since both machine learning algorithms and probabilistic samplers rely on the distinguishability of data and its gradients with respect to parameters. However, identifying degeneracies in physical models or real-world datasets can be elucidating about the choice of model or the underlying process that produces the data. We present the degeneracy distillery, a method that (1) detects and (2) resolves degenerate parameter combinations (a) automatically and (b) symbolically, from parameter-data (or parameter-simulation) pairs alone, through estimation and flattening of the Fisher information matrix. By exploring the information geometry of the likelihood, we characterize degeneracies as an intrinsic property of the physical model, requiring no realised data observation. We demonstrate our approach on a range of synthetic and real-world problems, discovering symbolic coordinate transformations that identify the combinations of parameters of a model which yield independent effects on the data. The resulting coordinates flatten the Fisher information in expectation globally, in contrast to posterior-based methods that flatten only at a single point, and substantially reduce the simulation budget required for downstream neural posterior estimation. In test cases we require up to $10\times$ fewer simulations for posterior estimation at matched validation calibration whilst simultaneously gaining physical insight on the system.
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quant-ph 2026-06-23

Petz map performs gradient ascent on tomography likelihood

by Sebastian Murk, Ian Tan +2 more

Connecting Quantum Tomography and Quantum Retrodiction

The recovery map equals the likelihood gradient, so repeated applications maximize the fit of a state to observed quantum data.

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Quantum tomography and quantum retrodiction are traditionally viewed as separate inference tasks: tomography reconstructs quantum states from measurement data, whereas retrodiction infers past quantum states from observed outcomes. We show that the two are manifestations of the same underlying principle. We prove that the Petz recovery map associated with a measurement channel is precisely the gradient update of the log-likelihood used in maximum-likelihood tomography. Consequently, repeated applications of the Petz map monotonically increase the likelihood. Extending beyond measurement channels, we derive a noncommutative generalization of the Petz map from the gradient of a generalized likelihood for arbitrary quantum channels. The resulting iterative procedure maximizes the likelihood and provides a general framework for quantum tomography, establishing a direct bridge between retrodiction, recovery maps, and statistical inference.
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physics.bio-ph 2026-06-23

Rotational invariants yield 3D images of aerosolized viruses

by Tim B. Berberich, Johan Bielecki +13 more

Imaging aerosolized viruses with an X-ray free-electron laser using single-particle rotational invariants

They expose capsid asymmetries, internal density changes, and vertex extensions in PR772 particles from XFEL patterns at modest resolution.

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X-ray free-electron lasers (XFELs) enable diffraction-before-destruction measurements of individual nanosized bioparticles, making it possible to study the structure and dynamics of non-crystalline targets under near-biologically relevant conditions. In this work, we employ rotational invariants for model-guided and ab initio three-dimensional (3D) structure determination of aerosolized bacteriophages PR772 measured with an XFEL. The rotational invariants derived from diffraction patterns collected during multiple independent XFEL experiments facilitate the characterization of similarities and structural variations within the measured ensembles of PR772 particles. Despite modest experimental resolution, we can identify various structural features of the viruses, including the asymmetric nature of capsid distortions from the perfect icosahedral shape, density variations in the encapsulated content, and an extension at one of the capsid vertices. Rotational invariants combine structural sensitivity with applicability to forward-scattering modeling and inverse problem solving, making them powerful tools for probing the structure and temporal evolution of nano- and bioparticles using an XFEL, particularly enhancing the fidelity of structural analysis at limited experimental resolution.
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physics.data-an 2026-06-23

Method spots where physics breaks and recovers the exact missing equation

by Yifan Wang

Where Is My Physics Wrong? Localized and Identifiable Discovery of Model Discrepancy

LISDD first fits trusted parameters on a clean regime, then uses holdout and F-tests to identify local symbolic discrepancies while controll

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Hybrid models combine trusted physics with data-driven correction, but a physical model is rarely wrong everywhere or in the same way. The key diagnostic question is local: where does the model fail, what missing mechanism explains the failure, and is the evidence statistically real? Existing sparse-discovery and discrepancy-learning methods usually fit one global correction, which can spread a local error into clean regimes, bias trusted physical parameters, and provide no calibrated significance for selected terms. We introduce LISDD, Localized, Identifiable Sparse Discovery of Discrepancy, a framework that localizes model error to an operating regime, identifies a sparse symbolic form for the missing mechanism, and certifies the discovery with an exact finite-sample test. LISDD fits the known physics on an automatically detected clean regime, flags discrepant regions with a calibrated residual-energy statistic, selects the local missing term by exhaustive holdout over a candidate library, and confirms significance with a sample-split $F$-test. A false-discovery-rate extension handles multiple discrepant regions with different missing mechanisms. In controlled experiments, LISDD keeps physical-parameter bias at 0.002 versus 0.43 for global-discrepancy and black-box baselines, raises localization $F_1$ from 0.44 to 0.80, recovers the correct symbolic form with probability one, attains exact detection, and controls the multi-region false-discovery rate while recovering every planted mechanism. The result is a calibrated diagnostic tool for grey-box building-energy models when a fixed physical law silently breaks in one operating regime.
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stat.ME 2026-06-22

OASIS reweights priors to match observed data distributions after embedding measurement ef

by Arya Farahi, Conghao Zhou +1 more

OASIS: Observation-Aware Simulation-Based Inference via Distributional Matching

The approach avoids summaries and neural surrogates while delivering theoretical consistency guarantees for parameter recovery under realist

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We introduce OASIS, a simulation-based inference framework for scientific settings where observations are distorted by measurement error, selection effects, and other survey-specific transformations. In many real applications, simulators generate latent, noiseless quantities, while the data are observed only after passing through a complex observational pipeline. Standard simulation-based inference methods often ignore this distinction, comparing observations to idealized simulator outputs or relying on low-dimensional summaries that can miss important structure. OASIS addresses this mismatch by explicitly embedding the observation model into the simulator and performing inference directly at the level of observed-data distributions. The method constructs a pseudo-posterior by reweighting prior samples according to a maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) loss between the empirical distributions of the observed data and forward-simulated observations, thereby avoiding both handcrafted summaries and learned neural surrogates. We provide theoretical guarantees for Monte Carlo consistency, convergence of the empirical pseudo-posterior to its population counterpart, and posterior concentration on the MMD-identified parameter set, with consistency for the true parameter under correct specification and identifiability. In controlled errors-in-variables regression experiments, OASIS delivers robust parameter recovery and well-calibrated uncertainty under heterogeneous and non-Gaussian measurement noise. We then demonstrate the method on a realistic cosmological application involving galaxy cluster observations across multiple wavelengths, in which latent physical properties are linked to observables through nonlinear scaling relations, heteroscedastic errors, selection functions, and incomplete coverage.
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physics.bio-ph 2026-06-22

Method extracts geometric phase from noisy sperm and nematode data

by Pyae Hein Htet, Kenta Ishimoto

Data-driven geometric phase in biological locomotion

Koopman autoencoder recovers limit cycles and perturbation sensitivities using only gauge theory, no mechanics needed.

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Geometric phase quantifies net locomotion in dissipative media via gauge theory, but linking this theoretical quantity to noisy, sparse, and weakly periodic biological shape data is challenging. We develop a theory-guided, data-driven Koopman autoencoder to recover the limit cycle embedded in imperfect cyclic data and extract shape gaits and geometric phase from sperm and nematode data. We introduce a geometric phase sensitivity function that quantifies responses to shape perturbations and reveals mechanical information using only gauge-theoretic structure, without assuming mechanical laws.
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cond-mat.stat-mech 2026-06-22

Crypto returns mapped to 13x13 spin lattice show ferromagnetic order

by Hamidreza Oliaei-Moghadam

The Market Crystal: A Spin-Lattice Model for Collective Cryptocurrency States

The energy-magnetization diagram of the resulting Market Crystal Hamiltonian separates aligned and fragmented market states.

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Collective dynamics in financial markets can emerge through synchronized movements of large groups of assets. Motivated by analogies with interacting many-body systems, we introduce a spin-lattice representation for analyzing collective states in cryptocurrency markets. In this framework, assets are encoded as binary spin variables according to the sign of their returns, while correlations between assets determine effective interaction strengths. A correlation-based breadth-first search (CBFS) procedure embeds 169 cryptocurrencies into a $13 \times 13$ lattice, enabling the construction of an Ising-like Hamiltonian describing the market configuration, which we call the \emph{Market Crystal}. Macroscopic observables such as magnetization and energy provide a statistical-mechanical characterization of collective market states. The resulting phase-space structure highlights regimes of strong alignment and fragmentation among assets, with an energy--magnetization pattern suggestive of predominantly ferromagnetic interactions. This framework offers a statistical-mechanical viewpoint for studying collective behavior in financial systems.
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physics.soc-ph 2026-06-22

Composite network ratings predict football standings more accurately

by A. Chacoma, J.I. Perotti +1 more

Ranking football teams via the higher-order decomposition of performance networks

Hodge decomposition on metric graphs reveals cyclic limits and league-specific metric weights that raise correlation with final tables.

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We propose a unified methodological framework to quantify team performance in elite football by combining event-level performance metrics, higher-order network representations, and algebraic ranking methods. Using data from the 2017--2018 season of the five major European leagues, we construct metric-specific weighted graphs in which teams are connected through relative performance indicators. These graphs are analyzed via Hodge decomposition, and the gradient component is used to derive metric-based team ratings. The resulting rankings are systematically compared with the true league standings using Pearson and Kendall correlation measures, revealing strong metric- and league-dependent effects. Furthermore, by analyzing the ratio between solenoidal and total flow energies, we show that local cyclic dynamics structurally limit the gradient component's capacity to reconstruct the ranking. This topological inconsistency acts as a structural fingerprint of each league's ``competition style'' successfully mapping the studied systems into distinct regimes: highly hierarchical structures (England and Italy), tactical parity driven by generalized loops (Germany), and pockets of localized chaos (France and Spain). Lastly, we introduce a composite rating obtained as a parsimonious linear combination of metric-based ratings, optimized separately for each league. This composite approach significantly improves predictive power and allows the relative importance of different performance indicators to be quantified in a league-specific manner. Our results demonstrate how higher-order network methods provide a flexible and interpretable framework to uncover latent performance structures in football, offering a complementary perspective to outcome-based rankings and a general approach applicable to other oppositional sports.
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cs.LG 2026-06-22

Equivariant jet taggers zero out pseudorapidity and encode mass

by Jay Agarwal, Siddharth Khare +1 more

What Do Lorentz-Equivariant Jet Taggers Learn?

Linear probes and grade ablations show vector channels dominate while bivectors add little for top tagging

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We study what Lorentz-equivariant jet taggers learn internally, using equivariance tests, linear probes and grade ablations across five models including L-GATr, L-GATr-slim and LLoCa-T. Linear probes show that equivariant models suppress frame-dependent pseudorapidity to zero while encoding jet mass and N-subjettiness strongly. Grade ablations on L-GATr reveal that bivector channels are negligible for top-quark tagging while vector-like channels are dominant but seed variable, consistent with the network exploiting multiple representational pathways. These results characterize which physical features and algebraic grade structures carry discriminative information in equivariant taggers and may inform future development of such models.
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quant-ph 2026-06-22

Identical particles either hide distinguishability or have only trivial common causes

by A. Hovhannisyan, S. Weigert +1 more

Common causes for quantum identical particles

Symmetric screening variables for joint probabilities from commutative measurements cannot explain all correlations.

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Violations of Bell's inequalities imply that joint probabilities generated by non-commutative measurements on two (non-identical) quantum particles do not have a single common cause. But joint probabilities generated for such non-identical particles via commutative measurements do have non-trivial common cause variables. We focus on commutative measurements and consider two identical quantum particles, whose density matrices and observables (hermitian operators) are necessarily permutation-symmetric. It is natural to demand that the common cause describing joint probabilities is also permutation symmetric, i.e., it acts symmetrically on both particles. Looking at various ways of defining joint probabilities from the same measurement data, we conclude that either symmetric common causes need not exist (i.e., that the particles can be hiddenly distinguishable), or that symmetric screening variables exist, but they are trivial, i.e., no single common cause can explain all single-measurement correlations.
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stat.ML 2026-06-19

Physics view accounts for deep learning's evasion of classical stats

by Itay Lavie, Noam Levi +1 more

Statistical Properties of Training & Generalization

Neural scaling laws plus inductive biases from physical constraints explain performance gains on real tasks.

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Deep learning has managed to evade numerous intuitions from classical statistics to achieve unprecedented performance on a number of real-world tasks. In this article, we investigate the key features and surprises of deep learning from a physics-informed perspective, taking care to point out and justify where possible the many choices inherent in constructing a deep learning model. In particular, we review the phenomenon of neural scaling laws and discuss their interplay with the constraints and inductive biases which may be present when applying machine learning to problems in physics.
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q-fin.ST 2026-06-19

Trends drive rising volatility and correlations

by Sara A. Safari, Christoph Schmidhuber

Trends, Volatility, Correlations, and Critical Phenomena in Financial Markets

Quadratic polynomials of trend strength refine risk forecasts and support lattice gas models near criticality

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We forecast future volatilities and correlations of financial markets based on the current trends in these markets. This complements previous work that models future expected returns by a cubic polynomial of the current trend strength. Empirically, we observe that volatilities and correlations tend to increase day after day in times of strong up- or down-trends. This effect is particularly pronounced in down-trends. It can be accurately quantified by quadratic polynomials of today's trend strengths, which refine common mean-reversion models of volatilities and correlations. Our results improve the prediction of market risk by accounting for market trends. They also support a recent proposal to model financial markets by a lattice gas near its critical point.
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physics.data-an 2026-06-19

Bayesian design optimizes sampling after marginalizing linear parameters

by Lennart H. Bosch, Martin B. Plenio

Optimal and Adaptive Bayesian Sampling for Non-Linear Parameter Estimation under White Noise

Under white Gaussian noise the method focuses design effort on non-linear quantities, illustrated with exponential-decay examples for NMR.

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The question of optimal experimental design has been addressed in a vast variety of contexts and answered using manifold approaches. Assuming additive white Gaussian noise, this work applies the Bayesian framework for design optimization to the posterior distribution after marginalization over linear parameters and discusses the implications. Examples of exponentially decaying signals with and without oscillations complement the discussion. Application of the examples considered include but are not limited to nuclear magnetic resonance and relaxometry experiments using solid-state spins sensors.
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physics.ins-det 2026-06-19

AI agents fuse multi-modal radiographic data for faster analysis

by Zhehui Wang, Shanny Lin +9 more

PiMiX 2.0: AI-enhanced Data Fusion for Radiographic Imaging and Tomography

PiMiX 2.0 integrates physics-informed workflows to accelerate processing and boost reproducibility in fusion and manufacturing experiments.

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Extending earlier work in Physics-informed Meta-instrument for eXperiments (PiMiX) [1], PiMiX~2.0 is an artificial-intelligence (AI)-enhanced data-fusion and analysis framework that integrates multi-experiment multi-modal radiographic imaging and tomography (RadIT) with physics-informed reasoning and agentic AI workflows. The framework supports automated data ingestion, multimodal image processing from one or more experiments, three-dimensional (3D) and time-resolved three-dimensional (4D) reconstruction, and physics-aware interpretation of experimental observations. The PiMiX agents are designed for deployment on desktop and laptop systems commonly used in experimental workflows, while remaining scalable to high-performance computing environments for computationally intensive tasks. By coupling RadIT instrumentation and measurements with geometry, physics, computation, and statistical inference, PiMiX 2.0 aims to accelerate RadIT data processing, knowledge extraction, improve reproducibility, and enable more integrated analysis and workflows in high-temperature plasmas, nuclear fusion, advanced manufacturing, other static and dynamic experiments.
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physics.soc-ph 2026-06-18

Sign error inverted US east-west axis in circadian health study

by Jose Maria Martin-Olalla, Jorge Mira

Methodological guidelines for circadian modeling of Daylight Saving Time: application to the United States

Correct longitude offset needed to match local solar time with social clock for daylight saving analyses.

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Modeling the circadian impact of seasonal clock changing requires precise synchronization between solar and social time. This report critiques a recent study that associated disease prevalence in the United States with seasonal clock exposure. We identify a fundamental computational error in which a sign reversal of the longitudinal offset effectively inverted the US East-West axis, cross-correlating local health data with the circadian burden of hypothetical locations on the opposite side of a time zone. We outline the methodology for a correct modelization of the circadian process in the context of US geography.
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astro-ph.CO 2026-06-18

AI reasoning yields two new dark-energy equations of state

by Clecio R. Bom, Bernardo M. Fraga +4 more

Physics-guided discovery of dynamical dark-energy equations of state through iterative AI reasoning

The forms reach higher Bayesian evidence than standard parameterizations on Pantheon+, DESI DR2, and Planck 2018 data.

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Phenomenological model building has traditionally relied on human reasoning: equations are proposed from theoretical intuition, analogy, or empirical convenience, and only then tested against data. Here we show that this cycle can be recast as an iterative AI reasoning process for dynamical dark energy. Our framework uses a large language model to propose equations of state together with cosmological rationales, grounded by retrieval from the dark-energy literature and refined through autonomous evaluation. Each candidate is embedded in a cosmological model, optimized against observations, and assessed using likelihood performance and theoretical consistency. An independent language-model critic scores the physical motivation, novelty, clarity, stability and implementation validity of both the equation and its rationale, allowing subsequent proposals to evolve jointly in mathematical structure and physical reasoning. Applied to cosmological data combinations including supernovae, baryon acoustic oscillations and Planck likelihoods, the framework identifies two parameterizations that, to the best of our knowledge, have not previously been explored and that are competitive with established forms. For Pantheon+ supernovae, DESI DR2 baryon acoustic oscillations and the full Planck 2018 temperature, polarization, and lensing likelihoods, the best AI-selected model attains larger Bayesian evidence than the traditional parameterizations considered here by more than one unit. These results show that AI-guided reasoning can complement physical model building by proposing and evaluating interpretable phenomenological parameterizations for dynamical dark energy.
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cond-mat.stat-mech 2026-06-18

Hyperstatistics models Brownian motion and brain dynamics

by Lucas Squillante, Samuel M. Soares +2 more

A few remarks on hyperstatistics and some applications

The framework handles non-Boltzmann-Gibbsian behaviour in physical and biological systems at high accuracy.

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In a recent paper [arXiv:2604.24783 (2026)], we have proposed a general approach to treat systems with inherent non-Boltzmann-Gibbsian behaviour. Given the extremely high accuracy of our approach, we have adopted the term hyperstatistics. We have applied such a statistical mechanics approach, i.e., hyperstatistics, to the discharge of a capacitor in a RC series circuit, pumping of $^4$He of a closed cycle cryostat, midrapidity data of $p$-Pb collisions at the LHC, as well as for the distribution of accelerations in turbulent systems. Here, we discuss into more details the ground of hyperstatistics. We demonstrate the versatility of hyperstatistics upon applying it to the velocity autocorrelation function in Brownian motion and also regarding its potential to describe brain dynamics.
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physics.ao-ph 2026-06-18

Atlantic gradient index shows wider nonlinear scaling than regional SST

by Sebastián Jaroszewicz, Nahuel Mendez +2 more

Multifractal Dynamics of Tropical Atlantic SST Indices: Nonlinear Scaling Structure and Episodic Statistical Association with ENSO Variability

TASI spectrum width reaches 0.72 versus 0.27-0.34 for others; shrinks during major El Nino events with 15-18 month lagged ENSO link but no d

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The Tropical Atlantic exhibits complex sea surface temperature (SST) variability driven by internal ocean-atmosphere interactions and remote climate forcing. We perform a comparative multifractal analysis of three SST indices, South Atlantic Tropical (SAT), Tropical Southern Atlantic (TSA), and the Tropical Atlantic SST Gradient Index (TASI), using weekly data from 1981 to 2025. Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MFDFA) reveals robust scale-dependent behavior in all indices. TASI displays a substantially broader multifractal spectrum (Delta h about 0.72) than SAT (0.27) and TSA (0.34). Surrogate-data tests show that multifractality in SAT and TSA is mainly explained by linear autocorrelations, whereas TASI contains an additional nonlinear contribution associated with phase correlations. To investigate temporal variability, we introduce a moving-window MFDFA framework that tracks the evolution of multifractal width. Significant reductions are observed during the major 1997-1998 and 2015-2016 El Nino events, indicating a suppression of multiscale variability under extreme Pacific forcing. Lagged correlation analysis reveals a significant negative association with the Oceanic Nino Index at delays of 15-18 months, consistent with known Atlantic-Pacific teleconnections. However, Granger causality and Transfer Entropy tests do not detect significant causal links, suggesting an episodic rather than persistent relationship. Lagged multifractal cross-correlation analysis further reveals scale-dependent inter-basin coupling. These results demonstrate that time-dependent multifractal measures provide a useful framework for characterizing nonlinear Atlantic variability and identify TASI as a dynamically distinct index whose scaling properties contain information not captured by regional SST indices alone.
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physics.ins-det 2026-06-18

Multi-scale entropy uncovers cosmic-ray effect on oscillator noise

by William M. Campbell, Ben T. McAllister +5 more

A Search for Effects of Cosmic Rays with Multi-scale Entropy Metrics

Underground runs show higher predictability than surface data across many timescales, while standard metrics see no difference.

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We report a comparison of frequency fluctuations in oven-controlled quartz bulk-acoustic-wave oscillators operated above ground and one kilometre underground in a low-muon-background environment. The experiment is motivated by the possibility that cosmic rays and other ionizing-radiation backgrounds produce rare, impulsive energy-deposition events that perturb high-Q mechanical resonators and appear as intermittent, non-Gaussian structure in oscillator frequency noise. Conventional power spectral density and Allan-deviation analyses show no statistically compelling separation between the two environments over the explored timescales. In contrast, multi-scale sample entropy and its modified form reveal a pronounced divergence, with the underground data exhibiting increased predictability over a broad range of effective integration times. This result identifies a change in the temporal structure of the oscillator fluctuations that is largely hidden from standard second-order frequency-stability metrics. We therefore propose multi-scale sample entropy as a new diagnostic for frequency control and timing, complementary to Allan deviation and spectral analysis, with particular sensitivity to intermittent structure, non-stationary contributions, and rare-event contamination. The observed entropy separation also provides evidence that the above-ground cosmic-ray environment influences oscillator frequency fluctuations, suggesting that radiation-linked disturbances may contribute to the stochastic behaviour of precision mechanical oscillators. These findings introduce an entropy-based methodology for oscillator metrology and provide a practical tool for future fundamental-physics experiments using cryogenic resonant sensors, where rare-event backgrounds and poorly understood low-frequency noise can limit sensitivity.
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cond-mat.dis-nn 2026-06-17

Mean-field equations track staged CoT learning in solvable transformer

by Niklas Forner, Marcel Kühn +2 more

Learning Dynamics of Chain-of-Thought State Tracking in a Solvable Transformer Model

Three order parameters for attention and logic alignment match simulations and locate the sharp accuracy transition on permutation state seq

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Chain-of-thought generation can turn a multi-step computation into a sequence of locally checkable state updates, but the training dynamics by which transformers acquire such updates remain poorly understood. We study this question in a solvable setting: a simplified one-block transformer trained by supervised next-token prediction on state sequences generated by composing permutations. The architecture separates fixed-lag action retrieval, learned by RoPE attention, from a specialized MLP logic module that applies the retrieved permutation to the current state. Using a statistical-physics mean-field description, we derive dynamics for three order parameters measuring attention retrieval, teacher-matrix alignment, and off-target logic overlap. These equations quantitatively match simulations for the order parameters and, combined with a logit-distribution approximation, qualitatively predict the sharp transition in final rollout accuracy. The analysis reveals staged learning: the logic module first learns a mixed heuristic; attention then locks onto the relevant action, enabling efficient MLP alignment. Together, these results provide a controlled mechanistic account of how attention-based retrieval and MLP-based logic co-develop during chain-of-thought state tracking.
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stat.AP 2026-06-16

Brody exponent recalibrated to quantify 2D exclusion

by Dawid Kucharski

Calibrating the Brody exponent as a quantitative measure of short-range exclusion in 2D spatial point processes

Baseline reset to β=0.96±0.15 and β--r_excl link validated at Spearman 0.988 across surfaces and embeddings.

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The Brody distribution, originally a phenomenological interpolation between Poisson and Wigner level-spacing statistics in quantum chaos, is calibrated here as a quantitative measure of short-range exclusion in 2D spatial point processes. Two results form the core. First, the 2D complete-spatial-randomness baseline is recalibrated to $\beta=0.96\pm0.15$, correcting the inappropriate 1D Poisson reference. Second, an empirical $\beta$--$r_{\text{excl}}$ calibration is validated against the effective hard-core radius with Spearman $\rho=0.988$. The framework is demonstrated on 58 manufactured surfaces (10 materials, 10 processes), phase-extracted interferometric profilometry of a certified roundness standard, and 2D binary embeddings of prime numbers. A sparse-integer control proves the prime $\beta=2.15$ signal is genuinely arithmetic ($\Delta\beta=+0.68$ over random-integer control), while a Cantor-embedding null result ($\beta=1.40$, TOST $p<0.01$) demonstrates that 2D exclusion is embedding-created rather than intrinsic. Density-thinning experiments establish that $\beta$ captures exclusion strength rather than point density, while absolute values are density-dependent. A distinct CSR baseline for binary fields at low fill fraction is identified, with a decision table provided. The $\beta$--$r_{\text{excl}}$ calibration, the CSR baseline correction, and the control protocols together constitute a calibrated measurement framework for reproducible characterisation of short-range exclusion in 2D spatial point processes.
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cond-mat.mtrl-sci 2026-06-12

Symmetry fingerprints flag 2D magnets with competing phases

by Addis Fuhr, Zachary R. Fox +2 more

Symmetry-electronic fingerprints reveal competing magnetic phases in two-dimensional materials

Model uncertainty in SEF representations points to near-degenerate FM and AFM states in Co- and Ni-based compounds.

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Two-dimensional magnets offer compelling platforms for spintronics and quantum technologies, yet predicting their magnetic ground states, moments, and anisotropy remains challenging. This limitation primarily arises because existing machine-learning representations encode chemical environments without capturing the symmetry or exchange physics that govern magnetism. In this work, we introduce the symmetry-electronic fingerprint (SEF), a physically interpretable representation that encodes crystallographic symmetry operations, Wyckoff-site geometry, together with site-resolved electronic structure. Combined with ensemble learning with random forests, the SEF accurately classifies magnetic ordering while regressing moments alongside anisotropy energies while simultaneously resolving the distinct regimes of itinerant Stoner ferromagnetism from localized superexchange. What sets the SEF-trained models apart is that regions of elevated model uncertainty are not a failure but a diagnostic, identifying materials where these mechanisms compete. First-principles calculations on Co- and Ni-based halides and oxides confirm that these regions correspond to genuine near-degenerate FM and AFM phases with magnetic frustration, suppressed anisotropy, and emergent non-collinear ordering. By encoding symmetry together with exchange physics directly into the representation unlike conventional descriptors, the SEF transforms model uncertainty into a compass pointing toward two-dimensional materials where small perturbations drive transitions between collinear, frustrated, or non-collinear magnetic phases.
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physics.data-an 2026-06-12

Feature library recovers parameters from time series data

by Ben D. Fulcher, Carl H. Lubba +3 more

Interpretable model-free inference of parametric variation across time-series data through large-scale feature extraction

Unsupervised extraction using over 7000 statistics reconstructs variation in simulated systems and fruit-fly movements.

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Here we address the problem of estimating the dimensionality and nature of parametric variation in an unknown generative process directly from time-series data, without specifying or fitting a model. In particular we suppose that inter-instance variation in collections of time series is caused by parametric variation in the generating model. We hypothesize that, given a sufficiently large library of time-series features, low-dimensional parametric variation will manifest as low-dimensional structure in feature space, enabling interpretable estimators of the underlying degrees of freedom to be constructed. We test our hypothesis using a library of over 7000 diverse and interpretable time-series statistics and thirteen simulated systems with known parametric variation, spanning linear stochastic processes, nonlinear oscillators, and chaotic dynamics. Our unsupervised, data-driven approach often reconstructs the underlying parametric variation across this extensive range of simulated dynamical systems while also yielding interpretable estimators for each underlying dimension. Applied to the movement dynamics of 1143 fruit flies, we use this method to extract biologically meaningful components corresponding to sex and circadian rhythmicity. Our results pave the way for much-needed data-driven methods to bridge the gap between interpretable theoretical understanding of dynamics and the large and complex datasets that characterize modern scientific problems.
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hep-ph 2026-06-11

QFT couplings of order one often differ by factors above 100

by Ben Allanach (Cambridge U., DAMTP)

The Fundaments of Unity: {mathcal O}(1) Couplings in Quantum Field Theories

Modeling them as independent O(1) random variables gives a 29 percent chance of spreads exceeding 100 for twenty couplings, with power-law t

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We critically examine the expectation that in a fundamental quantum field theory, dimensionless couplings in the Lagrangian density should all be of order unity. We propose a measure to quantify the adherence of a theory to this: the spread (the ratio of the largest to the smallest of the magnitudes) of such dimensionless couplings, obtaining various closed-form results. If we take independent identically distributed (IID) couplings to parameterise our uncertainty on the values of the order unity couplings, the spread can be much larger than one might naively expect. For a theory with 20 IID unit normal couplings, the probability that the spread is greater than 100 is 0.29, for example. Even when the IID couplings have exponentially suppressed tails, the distribution of the spread has fat power-law tails which grow with the number of independent couplings.
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physics.comp-ph 2026-06-11

Python tool recovers PALS lifetimes from synthetic spectra

by Georgios E. Pavlou

fitPALSpectra: Python fitting of positron annihilation lifetime spectra

fitPALSpectra uses analytical integration to match known ground-truth parameters for lifetimes, intensities, and resolution width.

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Positron annihilation lifetime spectroscopy (PALS) spectra are commonly analyzed by fitting multi-exponential lifetime models convoluted with the detector resolution function. In practice, this inverse problem is sensitive to initial parameter choices, parameter bounds, source corrections, and correlations between lifetime and intensity parameters. This paper presents fitPALSpectra, an open-source Python workflow for configurable PALS spectrum simulation, fitting, visualization, and reporting. The implementation uses an analytically integrated exponential--Gaussian response model, configurable source and sample components, constrained optimization, optional least-squares refinement, and machine-readable output of fit results, correlation matrices, and fitted curves. Validation on fully synthetic spectra with known ground-truth parameters shows accurate recovery of the simulated lifetimes, intensities, detector full width at half maximum, prompt shift, and background.
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stat.AP 2026-06-11

Diffusion-first SDE matches wind forecast accuracy while running seven times faster

by Luca Di Persio, Mehrdad Ghadiri

Weibull-Stationary Stochastic Differential Equations for Conditional Long-Horizon Wind Power Forecasting

Three Weibull-conditioned models give CRPS values of 1.569-1.575 m/s and Wasserstein distances below 1.4% of rated capacity; the fastest var

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We present a one-month-ahead conditional probabilistic framework for wind-power forecasting at ten-minute resolution. Monthly Weibull shape and scale parameters are estimated from serially dependent SCADA wind-speed data, corrected through a Godambe covariance, and forecast by a heteroskedastic Kalman filter on a bivariate VAR(1) state-space model. Conditional on the MMSE forecasted Weibull invariant law, we construct and compare three positive wind-speed SDE models: an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck-Weibull transform, a Fokker-Planck drift-first diffusion, and a Fokker-Planck diffusion-first model. The simulated wind-speed ensembles are mapped to power through a calibrated XGBoost power curve. Applied to January 2021 data from a Senvion MM92 turbine at Kelmarsh Wind Farm, the three SDE formulations are statistically indistinguishable in probabilistic accuracy, with mean CRPS values between 1.569 and 1.575 m/s. The diffusion-first model is therefore preferred on computational grounds, reducing runtime by about a factor of seven relative to the OU-Weibull model. In the power domain, the Wasserstein distance between simulated and observed distributions is 26.1-27.6 kW, below $1.4\%$ of rated capacity, while the monthly energy-yield bias is about $-7.3\%$ for the examined month. Exceedance-probability errors remain below 1.6 percentage points over the 0-1500 kW range and about 2.2 percentage points near rated power. These quantities provide decision-relevant probabilistic inputs for downstream operational problems, rather than completed reserve, storage, market, or fatigue-optimization decisions. Full marginalisation over the Kalman predictive law of the Weibull parameters is left as a natural extension.
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math.SP 2026-06-11

Perron-Frobenius theorem extended to complex-weighted networks

by Yu Tian, Mason A. Porter +1 more

Generalizing Perron--Frobenius theory and eigenvector-based centralities to networks with complex edge weights

Generalized versions define eigenvector centrality for quantum, circuit, and chemistry networks.

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A fundamental concept in linear algebra and its applications to network analysis is the Perron--Frobenius (PF) theorem, which underpins eigenvector-based centrality measures such as eigenvector centrality, PageRank, and hubs and authorities. By invoking the PF theorem, we know for strongly connected networks with positive edge weights that the eigenvector corresponding to the largest eigenvalue of the weight matrix yields a well-defined centrality measure (namely, eigenvector centrality). Traditional formulations of the PF theorem and associated centrality measures assume that networks have real-valued weights. However, many networks in areas such as quantum information, quantum chemistry, electrodynamics, and machine learning have complex-valued edge weights. In this paper, we study generalizations of the PF theorem to complex-valued matrices, establish connections between these generalizations, and propose generalized eigenvector-based centrality measures to analyzing node importances in networks with complex edge weights. We also prove results about the existence of complex-weighted networks that satisfy generalized PF properties and calculate associated centrality measures for several examples, which we draw from application areas such as electron transport, circuit analysis, mathematical chemistry, and communication networks.
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astro-ph.EP 2026-06-11

Multifractal spectra flag chaotic tumbling in Hyperion

by S. Jaroszewicz, N. Mendez +2 more

Multifractal Signatures of Hamiltonian Chaos in Hyperion's Rotational Dynamics

Light-curve analysis distinguishes Hamiltonian chaos from regular rotation even in sparse astronomical data.

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The chaotic rotation of Saturn's moon Hyperion is a paradigmatic example of Hamiltonian chaos in a natural system. Although its tumbling motion is well established theoretically, identifying a robust observational signature of chaos from sparse and noisy astronomical time series remains a major challenge, making phase-space reconstruction techniques impractical under realistic conditions. In this work, we show that multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA) provides an effective alternative for detecting chaotic dynamics directly from photometric observations. Using historical ground-based light curves and synthetic datasets, we demonstrate that the intermittency associated with chaotic tumbling produces a broad multifractal singularity spectrum. While multifractality is a known feature of Hamiltonian chaos, we show that it can serve as a practical observational diagnostic when traditional chaos indicators fail because of sparse sampling. In particular, the multifractal spectrum remains detectable after realistic observational filtering and distinguishes chaotic tumbling from aliased regular rotation. By contrast, regular resonant rotation exhibits a significantly narrower spectrum, approaching the monofractal behavior expected for uncorrelated noise. For the observational data, we measure a broad spectral width consistent with the synthetic chaotic model, statistically distinct from surrogate datasets, and robust against finite time-series length. These results establish multifractal scaling as a viable observational signature of Hamiltonian chaos in sparse astronomical datasets, bridging nonlinear dynamics and planetary photometry.
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q-bio.NC 2026-06-10

Masked regression separates local and distributed signals in EEG

by Maryam Ostadsharif Memar, Nima Dehghani

Spatially Masked Regression Reveals Local and Distributed Predictability in Electrophysiological Recordings

Each electrode retains strong predictability even after its immediate neighbors are excluded, showing both local redundancy and network-wide

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Neural recordings are often interpreted as local measurements, yet the signal at any one sensor can also reflect structured activity distributed across the broader network. This raises a basic question: to what extent does an electrode's signal reflect local versus distributed information in the underlying system? More specifically, how much of an electrode's activity is carried by its immediate neighborhood, and how much is embedded more broadly across the array? We address this with a Spatially Masked Regression (SMR) framework that reconstructs each electrode's timeseries from the remaining electrodes while excluding a configurable neighborhood around the target. By progressively increasing this mask, spatial locality becomes an experimental control for quantifying how much predictive information survives after nearby channels are withheld. We apply SMR to intracranial EEG with heterogeneous electrode coverage and to scalp EEG with standardized montages over sensorimotor cortex. Using distance correlation between original and reconstructed signals, we find strong within-subject reconstruction in both modalities, substantial residual predictability even when local neighbors are excluded, and markedly stronger cross-subject transfer in EEG than in iEEG. Masking shows that nearby electrodes contribute strongly to reconstruction but do not account for all of it, indicating that individual channels reflect both local redundancy and broader distributed structure. Surrogates that preserve selected marginal or spectral properties while disrupting phase structure or temporal ordering substantially reduce performance, supporting the conclusion that SMR depends on structured temporal and cross-channel organization rather than on marginal statistics alone. These results position SMR as an interpretable framework for quantifying the balance between local and distributed information in recordings.
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physics.app-ph 2026-06-10

One sensor inside a rolling tire maps its vibration modes

by Pradosh Pritam Dash, Ricardo Burdisso +1 more

Virtual-Array Operational Modal Analysis of Rolling Tires Using a Single Tire Cavity Accelerometer

Non-integer tire-to-drum ratio turns repeated revolutions into a virtual circumferential array, identifying 11 modes to 240 Hz.

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The dynamics of rolling tires significantly influence the low-frequency (0-500 Hz) structure-borne noise within vehicles. Accurately characterizing these dynamics under realistic operating conditions remains challenging. Current state-of-the-art methods, primarily relying on Laser Doppler Vibrometers (LDV), are complex to implement, time-intensive, and generally limited to smooth tires in laboratory environments due to issues with speckle formation on treaded surfaces. This study introduces an innovative strategy for Operational Modal Analysis (OMA) of a rolling tire using a single wireless Tire Cavity Accelerometer (TCA) together with two optical sensors. The methodology leverages the non-integer ratio between the tire and drum diameters in a test rig to create a virtual sensor array. By utilizing optical sensors to time-stamp the cleat impact (on the drum) precisely and the TCA position (on the tire), the vibration responses from multiple revolutions are clustered according to the TCA's circumferential position at the moment of impact. This effectively synthesizes responses from an array of virtual sensors distributed around the tire circumference using data from a single test run. The clustered signals are conditioned using order tracking to remove periodic components arising from contact patch deformation. Both Frequency Domain Decomposition (FDD) and Covariance-based Stochastic Subspace Identification (SSI-Cov) were employed for modal identification. The SSI-Cov method proved more robust, successfully identifying 11 circumferential modes up to 240 Hz. The proposed approach offers a significantly more efficient, cost-effective method for characterizing rolling tire dynamics, which is readily applicable to treaded tires and adaptable for on-road testing.
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physics.data-an 2026-06-09

Relative belief intervals achieve confidence levels in Poisson signal detection

by Michael Evans, Siqi Zheng

Confidence, Statistical Evidence and Relative Belief with Applications to a Problem in Particle Physics

They follow the principle of evidence while attaining repeated-sampling coverage for a signal with background noise.

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Probability theory provides a clear definition of what is meant by evidence in favor, against or none either way, of an event occurring for an unobserved response, via the principle of evidence. This is immediately applicable when carrying out a proper Bayesian analysis. Even without a prior, this imposes restrictions on reported inferences as these need to reflect the likelihood ordering. Relative belief inferences satisfy this requirement and, when the errors in these inferences are controlled, they also satisfy repeated sampling, or frequentist, requirements such as achieving given confidence levels. Relative belief inferences are considered here for the construction of intervals for uncertainty quantification in the context of a Poisson model for a signal with background noise. These intervals are contrasted with the well-known Feldman-Cousins intervals for this problem.
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physics.optics 2026-06-09

Full-spectrum readout selection plus L1/L2 cuts overfitting in physical reservoirs

by Sobhi Saeed, Mehmet Müftüoglu +4 more

Effective Training Principles of Physical Reservoirs

Pruning and regularization tested on a fiber-optical extreme learning machine improve accuracy on nonlinear benchmarks while lowering traini

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Reservoir computers benefit from the inherent complexity of optical phenomena, which provide rich, often nonlinear dynamics. However, training directly on the reservoir's output renders the system prone to overfitting and computationally inefficient during the training phase. In this work, we investigate strategies to mitigate overfitting and reduce computational overhead through output pruning and regularization. We compare loss-minimizing search methods (Equal Search and Branch and Bound) against an output-oriented statistical filtering approach (Variance Filter) and random pruning, highlighting advantages and disadvantages of each approach and the overall importance of informed reservoir output sampling, particularly for a shrinking latent space. We further demonstrate that enforcing readout selection across the full output spectrum improves performance, especially for non-iterative methods. Additionally, we examine L1 and L2 regularization techniques (LASSO and ridge regression), both of which significantly enhance performance on highly nonlinear tasks such as the Spiral Benchmark. While our methods are of general use, results are obtained from and discussed exemplarily for a nonlinear fiber-optical extreme learning machine. Overall, this study provides a deep analysis of the reservoirs' hidden-layer filtering mechanisms and the output-layer training, enabling optimized performance in physical reservoir computing systems.
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cs.LG 2026-06-09

Neural ensembles produce only closed covariances

by Jin Lei

Integrating Out, Twice:The Open-System Case That Neural-Network Ensemble Theory Is Missing

Averaging misses the non-Hermitian ledger that tracks flux lost to a continuous-spectrum sector.

abstract click to expand
Averaging a neural network over its random parameters and marginalizing a Gaussian sector are the same operation, the Schur complement of the eliminated block, and when that block is closed it returns a covariance and its inverse. That is all a network ensemble produces, the closed case. The open case is missing, and nuclear reaction theory has it worked out. Projecting a scattering problem onto a chosen set of channels, with the rest carrying probability irreversibly to a continuum, leaves a non-Hermitian effective generator that conserves and itemizes exactly what it loses: the nuclear optical model and its generalized optical theorem. I set the two cases side by side using only the moments of a distribution, the algebra of Gaussians, and block inversion, no field theory, and give the closed-case dictionary in full: the neural tangent kernel is the Fisher sensitivity kernel, the infinite-width Gaussian limit is the Gaussian-process emulator, and the lazy-to-feature transition is the validity boundary of a reduced-basis emulator. I then test the open export on a truncated attention map, a token-level transfer operator, and a sparse expert router, and report a mostly negative result. The conserved flux ledger ports wherever openness is genuinely present, but its distinctive content is absent, an artifact of the chosen partition, or pinned near a floor by the training objective, and the operationally useful uncertainty turns out to be epistemic, living in the closed half of the correspondence, not the open one. The negative has a structural reason this note makes precise: the open case needs an eliminated sector with a continuous spectrum and wave-like, not relaxational, dynamics, which mainstream learning's finite or dissipative objects do not supply. This is a note, not a result; its main finding is that negative one, and its value is the map that locates it.
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cs.AI 2026-06-08

Agents form swarms by minimizing information under promises

by Mark Burgess

Quantitative Promise Theory: Intentionality and Inference in Autonomous Agents

Boundary conditions serve as promises that define intent and sidestep probability coordination pitfalls.

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I discuss some quantitative representations of Promise Theory for processes involving autonomous agents. Agent models are common in software systems, machine learning, and biology, for example, but may also apply to physics and other forms of engineering. I describe how Bayesian probability and information theoretic optimization, including Active Inference, may be incorporated with promise semantics -- as well as how Promise Theory supplements solutions, helping to avoid probability's pitfalls, which include non-local coordination, calibrating, and normalizing probabilistic computations. The role of boundary conditions in constraining allowed states and selecting decision thresholds is a form of promise, and agent alignment provides a scalable definition of intent. Autonomous agents may congeal into swarms with superagent characteristics by trying to minimize their information, despite uncertainty that works to maximize it. The use of Promise Theory involves some research challenges as well as stylistic preferences.
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stat.ML 2026-06-08

Cycle space extracts recurrent patterns from directed interactions

by Moo K. Chung, Anass B. El-Yaagoubi +1 more

Vector Space of Cycles

A dynamical system on simplicial complexes isolates persistent harmonic flows, enabling averaging and inference across populations where pai

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Most statistical and machine learning methods for directed interactions focus on pairwise effects among variables. Even existing cyclic models represent feedback primarily through node-level dependencies, making large-scale recurrent organization difficult to estimate and compare. This limitation is particularly acute in biological and neural systems, where interactions are highly recurrent and involve many overlapping cycles. We introduce a variational framework for statistical inference on cyclic interactions. Directed interactions are represented as edge flows on a simplicial complex and evolved under an energy-minimizing dynamical system. The resulting dynamics separate transient interaction components from persistent harmonic flows, yielding a low-dimensional cycle space that captures stable recurrent organization. Rather than enumerating individual cycles, the proposed framework represents cyclic interactions as elements of a Hilbert space, enabling projection, averaging, comparison, and population-level statistical inference. We establish theoretical properties of the harmonic projection, including characterization of the cycle space, variance reduction, and population inference. Simulations demonstrate substantially improved recovery of cyclic structure in dense recurrent systems compared with existing directed-interaction methods. Applied to resting-state fMRI from 400 human subjects, the framework reveals reproducible large-scale cyclic organization that is not detectable through edgewise averaging. These results provide a scalable statistical framework for studying recurrent interactions in high-dimensional dynamical systems.
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nlin.CD 2026-06-08

ML-FTLE combines divergence and Poincare grids for chaos tracking

by S. V. Manivelan, Andrei Velichko +1 more

Unified Geometry-Guided ML-FTLE for Tracking Transient Chaos from Scalar Time Series

Partial least squares regression on occupancy grids calibrates predictive instability to attractor structure for equation-free regime monito

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Detecting transient chaos from scalar observations without governing equations represents a fundamental challenge in nonlinear dynamics. We propose a geometry-guided machine learning framework that unifies predictive trajectory divergence with macroscopic attractor morphology to track abrupt regime shifts. The methodology extracts a local instability scale via out-of-sample k-nearest neighbor forecast errors to establish the ML-FTLE estimator, subsequently mapping this temporal divergence onto a structural closeness matrix derived from a minimal dictionary of Poincare occupancy grids. By employing partial least squares regression, we extract a latent geometric component calibrated directly to the empirical finite-time Lyapunov spectrum, yielding the Poincare-based geometric-guided FTLE. Validation against analytical QR-FTLE baselines confirms that fusing topological state spaces with predictive divergence systematically improves continuous transition tracking. The Structural Similarity Index optimally resolves gradual damping, while Hausdorff Distance exhibits extreme resilience during abrupt phase-space collapses. Furthermore, macroscopic spatial discretization acts as a robust topological regularizer against additive Gaussian noise, preserving deterministic signatures even at moderate signal thresholds. This equation-free framework provides a highly accurate, noise-resilient diagnostic for monitoring structural transitions in complex non-stationary systems.
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hep-ph 2026-06-05

Reweighting networks unfold without support overlap

by Umar Sohail Qureshi, Krish Desai +2 more

Reweighting Adversarial Networks for Unbinned Unfolding

RANs steer particle-level weights using a detector-level Wasserstein critic for accurate single-pass unfolding

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Differential cross sections are the currency of scientific exchange in particle and nuclear physics. Recently, machine learning methods have enabled unbinned and high-dimensional cross section measurements through new approaches to unfolding. A key challenge with unfolding is that it is a bi-level optimization problem where constraints are available at the detector level while the target is at the particle level, linked by a stochastic detector response. Further complications arise when the particle-level and detector-level distributions have non-overlapping or only partially overlapping support, which can destabilize training and degrade unfolding performance. In this paper, we introduce a new unbinned unfolding technique called the Reweighting Adversarial Network (RAN), which can be viewed as a generalization of the Moment Unfolding protocol to accommodate full phase-space unfolding. RANs address the bi-level optimization problem through a particle-level reweighting function steered by a Wasserstein critic at the detector level. RANs do not require overlapping support at the detector level, nor multiple iterations of training. We evaluate the performance of RANs with Gaussian data and jet substructure studies, including cases specifically designed to stress test the method under vanishing support overlap. We demonstrate that RANs outperform state-of-the-art methods in accuracy and have a lower computational overhead.
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physics.data-an 2026-06-05

Unified schema turns QCD detector data AI-ready across technologies

by Zhiwan Xu, Sylvester Joosten +3 more

Design Principles for AI-Ready QCD Data with a Barrel Imaging Calorimeter Application

Framework maps varied readouts from pixel and calorimeter layers into one structure, shown on Barrel Imaging Calorimeter simulations.

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Data from large physics collider experiments in Quantum Chromodynamics (QCD) research differ fundamentally from the modalities used in modern foundation models. The heterogeneity of detector readouts and their technology dependence require principled curation for cross experiment AI applications. We present a design framework for AI-ready QCD data to define a unified data structure that accommodates heterogeneous detector technologies within a single schema. We apply the design principle to the simulated data of the Barrel Imaging Calorimeter (BIC) in the ePIC detector at the Electron--Ion Collider. The BIC simulation data combines AstroPix silicon pixel imaging layers with Pb/ScFi calorimeter layers across different readout types. We describe the schema specialization, data preparation pipeline, and visualization of the curated AI-ready dataset.
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astro-ph.IM 2026-06-04

New criterion ranks multi-GP models by RV fit alone

by Oscar Barragán

A Model Selection Criterion for Multidimensional Gaussian Processes: Application to Radial Velocities

MGIC_rv uses conditional likelihood and adjusted parameter count to pick activity indicators that best constrain radial velocity signals

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Multidimensional Gaussian Process (multi-GP) regression is widely used to disentangle stellar and planetary signals in radial velocities (RVs) by jointly modelling ancillary activity indicators. However, identifying the combination of indicators that best constrains the stellar signal in the RVs is non-trivial, as classical model comparison methods are not directly applicable when multi-GPs involve different time series combinations. In this work, we present an information criterion to compare multi-GP models based on their ability to explain the RV component, $\mathrm{MGIC}_{\rm rv}$. This metric combines the conditional RV likelihood with an effective parameter count that accounts for the regularisation imposed by the multi-GP model on the RV component. We demonstrate that $\mathrm{MGIC}_{\rm rv}$ provides a quantitative and robust framework for multi-GP model comparison, identifying the activity indicators that most effectively constrain the RV signal. Although developed in the context of RV analysis, the proposed criterion is general and applicable to multi-GP problems in which the inference focuses on a specific observable.
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physics.data-an 2026-06-04

Method fixes bias in Lambda polarization from asymmetric detectors

by Tan Lu, Chengdong Han +8 more

A practical methodology for Λ global polarization extraction in fixed-target experiments

This allows reliable measurements of global spin polarization in fixed-target heavy-ion experiments at lower energies.

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Non-central heavy-ion collisions generate large orbital angular momentum in the created medium, which leads to polarization of final-state particles via spin-orbit coupling, known as global spin polarization. The observation of significant global polarization of $\Lambda$ hyperon in heavy-ion collisions indicates that the quark-gluon plasma is the most vortical fluid known in nature. Exploring $\Lambda$ global polarization at lower energies is important for understanding spin dynamics across different regions of the quantum chromodynamics (QCD) phase diagram. Low-energy nuclear experiments are typically conducted with asymmetric detector acceptance, as in fixed-target collisions at RHIC-STAR, and at facilities such as FAIR, NICA, HIAF and HIRFL-CSR. The asymmetric rapidity coverage in these experiments enhances the coupling between directed flow and detector inefficiencies, creating significant bias in $\Lambda$ global polarization measurements. In this paper, we propose a methodology to eliminate such bias arising from asymmetric detector acceptance. The method is validated using realistic detector simulations based on the STAR fixed-target configuration.
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astro-ph.EP 2026-06-03

Entry angle controls bolide infrasound detection

by Miro Ronac Giannone, Elizabeth A. Silber

The Role of Source Geometry and Atmospheric Propagation in Global Bolide Infrasound Detectability

Steeper trajectories with lower energy deposition reach global arrays more reliably than shallow high-altitude ones across the 623-event sam

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Global infrasound monitoring provides a persistent means of detecting energetic bolide atmospheric entries, complementing optical observations and extending coverage over remote regions. We present a global assessment of the physical factors governing bolide infrasound detectability by correlating 623 bolide events reported by the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies between 2007 and 2025 with waveform data from the International Monitoring System. We identify 311 events with confirmed infrasound detections, corresponding to a detection rate of approximately 50%, substantially higher than inferred from earlier surveys, reflecting both the maturation of the global infrasound network and advances in automated, multi-frequency array processing. Analysis of flight parameters shows that infrasound detectability is selective rather than uniform across the bolide population. Detected events are preferentially associated with steeper entry angles and lower-altitude energy deposition, while shallow, high-altitude trajectories are less consistently observed. Very high-energy events remain detectable regardless of geometry, but for the more common lower-energy regime, observability depends on specific combinations of entry parameters and propagation conditions. This geometric dependence persists across comparable energy ranges and atmospheric conditions, indicating that entry angle exerts a primary control on detectability, with energy and propagation acting as secondary modulating factors. These results provide new physical constraints on bolide-atmosphere interactions and improve interpretation of global infrasound observations for planetary defense and atmospheric-entry studies.
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hep-ph 2026-06-03

Neural network matches chi-squared fits on neutrino mass ordering

by T.J.C. Bezerra, L. Asquith +2 more

Predicting the Neutrino Mass Ordering Using Neural Networks

Synthetic long-baseline datasets show the classifier reaches comparable discrimination to standard methods, supplying an independent cross-c

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Determining the neutrino mass ordering remains a central open problem in particle physics. While next-generation long-baseline experiments are expected to resolve this question, current data provide limited sensitivity because the spectral differences between normal and inverted ordering are subtle and entangled with parameter degeneracies. We investigate a machine-learning strategy for mass-ordering determination using a feed-forward neural-network classifier trained on synthetic long-baseline datasets generated with three-flavour oscillation probabilities, matter effects, and statistical fluctuations. We evaluate the classifier against standard $\chi^2$ and $\log\mathcal{L}$ approaches using common discrimination metrics, including receiver-operating-characteristic curves, to quantify sensitivity and to illustrate how operating points can be selected to prioritise purity or efficiency. We find that the neural network achieves performance comparable to conventional fits for the scenarios studied, providing a flexible, independent cross-check of established analyses. The framework can be extended to incorporate systematic uncertainties and to explore joint inference of oscillation parameters, and it may also serve as a pedagogical tool for introducing machine-learning methods in neutrino physics.
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stat.ME 2026-06-03

Spin models capture high-order correlations in discrete data

by Aaron De Clercq, Merijn Moody +1 more

Modeling Discrete Data with High-Order Vector Potts Models

q-state models generalize the vector Potts approach to arbitrary interaction orders with gauge-invariant statistics.

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Modeling high-dimensional data is challenging, yet essential to understanding many complex systems. Maximum entropy models such as Ising and Potts models have been used extensively to capture pairwise interactions from correlation patterns in data, allowing to infer graphical representations of complex systems from observations (e.g., from protein sequences or neural population activity). Recently, there has been growing interest in modeling higher-order correlation patterns involving simultaneously three or more variables. While progress has been made in binary data with high-order Ising models, we extend this framework to the more general case of discrete data. We introduce q-state spin models, a complete family of maximum entropy models that generalize the vector Potts model to include long-range and arbitrary high-order interactions. In the pairwise case, our models allow for more diverse interaction types compared to the standard vector Potts model. We discuss their statistical interpretation with examples and relate them to discrete Fourier analysis. Using a loop expansion of the partition function, we show that the statistical properties of spin models are fully captured by the algebraic structure of their interactions. We define gauge transformations under which this structure, and thus the partition function, remains invariant. Models equivalent under gauge transformations can be seen as different representations of the same abstract statistical model, despite generally having interactions of different orders, extending results from the binary case. For practical application to data analysis, we focus on a subset of models known in the binary case as Minimally Complex Models, generalizing them to discrete data. We obtain a closed-form expression for the marginal likelihood of these models, enabling fast model selection. We illustrate their use with simple real-world examples.
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astro-ph.GA 2026-06-01

Fixing mean in DRW fits underestimates tau uncertainties

by Brendon J. Brewer, Geraint F. Lewis +2 more

The Information Content of Quasar Variability Light Curves: How Well Can we Infer Stochastic Model Parameters?

Light curves constrain short-term volatility η far better than damping timescale τ; studies should focus on η.

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Quasar variability, driven by multi-scale physical processing within a relativistic accretion disk, is commonly modelled with stochastic time series models. The simplest of these is the Damped Random Walk (DRW), also known as the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process. Here, we demonstrate that, when fitting such a model to quasar light curve data, the mean of the light curve, $\mu$, should not be fixed (which is the typical approach), as this leads to overconfident inferences about the variability timescale $\tau$, with substantially underestimated uncertainties. However, the short term volatility parameter $\eta$ is typically very well constrained from short light curves. Through simulations, we compute information theoretic quantities such as the conditional entropy and the mutual information, confirming that light curves provide much more information about $\eta$ than about $\tau$. As a result, we recommend that future quasar variability studies focus on $\eta$ rather than $\tau$. To demonstrate this approach, we fit a hierarchical Bayesian regression model for $\eta$ as a function of bolometric luminosity and rest wavelength to a dataset of 570 light curves measured over decades. We perform the fit using a likelihood function that uses the light curves directly, rather than using intermediate $\eta$ values from individual light curve fits. We find that volatility decreases as a function of both bolometric luminosity and rest wavelength. The volatility also decreases more steeply with redshift than time dilation alone would suggest, pointing to an increase in intrinsic volatility as quasars evolve over cosmic time.
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q-bio.QM 2026-06-01

Canonical coherence hypergraphs recover EEG coupling frequencies better

by Daniil Vlasenko, Irina Saranskaia +1 more

Hypergraphs from multivariate connectivity: caCOH-based EEG/MEG representation

They produce higher target-baseline contrast than MSC graphs while cutting edges from 610 per frequency to 10 or 1.

abstract click to expand
Hypergraphs provide a natural framework for representing neurophysiological interactions distributed across sets of sensors. A key methodological question is how hyperedges should be defined from frequency-resolved electroencephalography/magnetoencephalography (EEG/MEG) data. We demonstrate a construction strategy in which hyperedges are obtained from canonical coherence (caCOH), an extension of coherence that estimates coupling between multidimensional signal spaces. To our knowledge, this is the first work to construct hypergraphs directly from a multivariate connectivity measure specifically designed for frequency-resolved neurophysiological analysis. We propose two caCOH-based representations: a one-to-space hypergraph, where each external signal defines a hyperedge over the EEG/MEG sensor space, and a space-to-space hypergraph, where two multidimensional signal spaces are represented by a single hyperedge. We evaluate the approach in controlled simulations with known coupling frequencies and varying signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). Compared with graphs based on magnitude-squared coherence (MSC), caCOH-based hypergraphs showed statistically higher target-baseline contrasts at almost all SNR levels, indicating stronger recovery of coupling frequencies. They also recovered sensor-level spatial patterns associated with the simulated sources. In addition, one-to-space and space-to-space representations reduced 610 MSC edges per frequency to 10 and 1 hyperedges, respectively. These results establish multivariate spectral connectivity as a natural methodological basis for EEG/MEG hypergraphs.
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physics.data-an 2026-06-01

CIGAR method removes volume fluctuations from proton cumulants

by Yongcong Xu, Zhaohui Wang +2 more

Proton High-Order Cumulants in Au+Au Collisions at High Baryon Density from JAM with a Centrality-Independent Framework

JAM simulations at 3.2–4.5 GeV give a non-critical baseline for high-baryon-density QCD searches.

Figure from the paper full image
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The event-by-event higher-order cumulants of conserved quantities such as net-baryon, net-electric charge, and net-strangeness in heavy-ion collisions have been extensively utilized in experimental searches for the QCD critical point, notably in the RHIC-STAR experiment. In this study, we conduct a systematic analysis of higher-order cumulants of proton number distributions in Au+Au collisions at center-of-mass energies of $\sqrt{s_{\rm NN}} = 3.2$, $3.5$, $3.9$, and $4.5$ GeV using the JAM model. We calculate cumulants, factorial cumulants, and their ratios using a novel method, Centrality-Independent Genuine Cumulant Analysis fRamework (CIGAR), which effectively eliminates initial volume fluctuations. We comprehensively compare the CIGAR method with the traditional Centrality Bin Width Correction (CBWC) method. In addition, the effect of spectators on cumulant is systematically investigated. Our results provide a dynamic non-critical baseline in the high-baryon-density regime which is crucial for QCD critical point searches in heavy-ion collisions.
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astro-ph.IM 2026-06-01

Voigt profile wins statistical test for 6.7 GHz maser spectrum

by Theophilus Ansah-Narh, Stephen Sottie +2 more

Bayesian estimation of spectral parameters of the 6.7-GHz methanol maser G339.884-1.259 from GRAO observations

Bayesian MCMC decomposition of G339.884-1.259 data finds lowest AIC, BIC and highest R-squared for Voigt over Gaussian or Lorentzian, reveal

Figure from the paper full image
abstract click to expand
Accurate decomposition of methanol maser spectra is essential for understanding high-mass star-forming regions, especially in complex blended spectra where small differences alter physical interpretation. Conventional Gaussian fitting often fails to capture non-Gaussian structure and lacks uncertainty quantification. We develop a Bayesian spectral decomposition framework using Gaussian, Lorentzian, and Voigt profiles with Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling, enabling model comparison and uncertainty estimation. Applied to the 6.7\,GHz methanol maser G339.884$-$1.259 observed with the Ghana Radio Astronomy Observatory, our method reveals seven velocity-coherent components. The Voigt model is statistically preferred, yielding the lowest AIC and BIC ($\approx 1.98 \times 10^{4}$ and $1.99 \times 10^{4}$), the smallest RMSE ($\approx 11.1$ Jy), and the highest $R^{2}$ (0.985). Purely Gaussian or Lorentzian models leave systematic residuals. Elevated reduced $\chi^{2}_{\nu}$ values indicate unresolved substructure and non-ideal noise. Bayesian inference provides a robust framework for maser spectral analysis, extendable to other molecular lines and combinable with high-resolution interferometry.
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q-fin.ST 2026-06-01

Coarse-graining latent default paths induces long-horizon correlations

by Shintaro Mori

Temporal Coarse-Graining of Latent Default-Probability Paths Generates Effective Default Correlation

Aggregating monthly probabilities from a persistent latent path explains overdispersion and autocorrelation without explicit contagion terms

Figure from the paper full image
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We show that persistent dynamics of a latent default-probability path can generate effective default correlation through temporal coarse-graining. In the OU--Binomial baseline, monthly defaults are conditionally independent given this latent path, but aggregating monthly default probabilities into long-horizon probabilities induces a scale-dependent effective mixing distribution for aggregated default counts. Applied to corporate default-count data, this mechanism explains long-horizon overdispersion, autocorrelation, and the emergence of effective default correlation. We then examine Davis--Lo-type contagion and Vasicek-type common-factor extensions. Direct fitting at each aggregation scale assigns increasing residual covariance shares to instantaneous dependence, but worsens the per-block expected log predictive density. In contrast, when monthly posterior latent paths are first coarse-grained and residual-dependence parameters are estimated conditional on these paths, the residual covariance contributions remain small while the predictive density improves. Thus, temporal coarse-graining provides a scale-consistent baseline that regularizes the attribution of variance and improves identifiability by suppressing the over-allocation of long-horizon fluctuations to contagion or asset-correlation parameters.
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math.ST 2026-06-01

Arctan and dilogarithm give linear moments of angular Gaussian

by Siméon Vareilles

Closed-form linear moments of the two-dimensional angular central Gaussian distribution

Mean is arctangent of parameters while second moment is real part of dilogarithm from contour integration.

abstract click to expand
The polar-angle marginal of a centred bivariate Gaussian distribution, obtained after integrating out the radial coordinate, gives the two-dimensional angular central Gaussian (ACG) distribution of Tyler. While its trigonometric and vector-valued moments have been studied in detail, to our knowledge there are no explicit closed-form expressions for the \emph{linear} moments $\mathbf{E}[\theta]$ and $\mathbf{E}[\theta^{2}]$ on the natural domain $\theta\in\left]-\pi/2,\pi/2\right[$. Here \textit{linear} refers to the ordinary moments $\int\theta^{k}f(\theta)\,d\theta$ of the angle regarded as a real-valued variable, in contrast to the circular (trigonometric) moments $\mathbf{E}[e^{ik\theta}]$ customary in directional statistics. We provide such expressions: the mean is a simple arctangent of the parameters, while the second moment is given by the real part of a dilogarithm. The derivation, based on a contour integration around the branch cut of $\arctan z$, is elementary. These quantities naturally arise in physics, where $\theta$ is interpreted as a real-valued phase rather than a circular variable.
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cond-mat.mtrl-sci 2026-06-01

Coordination metric outperforms density clustering in APT

by Mykola Lazarev, John Banhart

Clustering in atom probe tomography data: coordination number metric, percolation-based parameter scaling, and size effects

Scaling to percolation thresholds yields an invariant variable that compensates for reconstruction artifacts in nanoscale precipitate detect

Figure from the paper full image
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The ability to identify nanometer-scale nuclei of new phases in atom probe tomography (APT) is often limited by the sensitivity of clustering algorithms to user-defined control parameters. Conventional approaches typically rely on the Euclidean distance metric and consider only solute atoms, thereby discarding the solvent atoms that contain most of the spatial information. Here, we introduce a coordination-number metric based on the composition and apply it to higher-order clustering. Using various metrics, we investigate percolation in typical APT structures. By scaling clustering properties to the corresponding percolation thresholds, we define a self-similar variable that is almost invariant with respect to metrics, clustering parameters, and structural disorder. This variable provides a relevant description of clustering and enables the formal transfer of optimal parameters between clustering methods. We also study the characteristic clustering behavior in small precipitates and quantify how the precipitate-matrix interface alters the composition spectrum and broadens the clustering curve. Finally, using simulations that incorporate finite spatial resolution, detection efficiency, and other APT reconstruction artifacts, we show that the approach based on coordination numbers effectively compensates for heterogeneous dilations and outperforms solute-density-based methods in all tested scenarios.
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physics.data-an 2026-06-01

AI methods scan data for signals without model assumptions

by Oz Amram, Marco Letizia +1 more

Model-Agnostic Signal Discovery with Machine Learning: Bridging the Gap Between Theory and Practice

Review outlines how broad exploration complements targeted searches to raise discovery rates where theory is limited.

abstract click to expand
Searches for new phenomena in complex scientific data are predominantly model-dependent, optimized for specific hypotheses, and therefore limited in their coverage of the space of possible signals. Recently, new AI-based model-agnostic search strategies, many of which have been pioneered in high-energy physics, have been proposed which provide a complementary paradigm, prioritizing broad exploration over tailored analyses. These techniques offer an opportunity to enhance the overall discovery potential of modern experiments, especially in regimes where theoretical guidance is scarce. In this document, we review the conceptual framework behind the main classes of AI-based model-agnostic strategies. We discuss the potential pitfalls of these methods, and strategies for their validation and interpretation. We aim for this document to serve as a useful reference both for practitioners and for researchers interested in learning more about these model-agnostic search strategies.
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physics.ao-ph 2026-06-01

Full distribution models beat direct classification for rare extremes

by Roberta Baggio, Jean-François Muzy

Forecasting threshold exceedance of atmospheric variables at a specific location

Fitting the entire conditional law of wind speed or rainfall and shifting its mean and variance yields better tail forecasts than binary exc

Figure from the paper full image
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This study compares two methodological approaches for predicting, at a given site, threshold exceedances of atmospheric variables such as temperature and wind speed: (i) direct probabilistic methods, which treat exceedance as a binary classification problem, and (ii) full distribution probabilistic methods, which model the complete conditional probability law of the target variable. Using theoretical analysis and numerical simulations on a toy model, alongside real-world data from the MeteoNet dataset (2016--2018) for southeastern France, we demonstrate that the full distribution approach consistently outperforms the direct method for rare, extreme events. This advantage arises because the full distribution approach effectively learns the parameters of the conditional distribution from moderate and mild intensity events, thereby achieving better calibration and discrimination in the tails. We find that the specific parametric shape of the chosen distribution plays a secondary role compared to accurately capturing predictable shifts in its bulk properties (i.e., mean and variance). This empirical indistinguishability is also informative about the physical mechanics driving atmospheric extremes, suggesting that extreme exceedances are primarily driven by significant conditional displacements of the entire distribution rather than by unpredictable, fat-tailed anomalies within a static climatology. Our results are validated for both strong surface wind speeds and intense hourly rainfall, with performance evaluated using proper scoring rules (Brier score, logarithmic score) and deterministic skill scores (Peirce Skill Score, CSI, HSS). These findings highlight the critical importance of modeling the full probability distribution for rare-event forecasting and provide practical guidance for improving extreme weather prediction in operational meteorology.
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nlin.AO 2026-06-01

Switching between walks and rests adds heavy tails and aging

by Abhijit Bera, Kevin. E. Bassler

Decomposition of Anomalous Diffusion in two-state random walks

Two-state models produce Noah and Moses effects on top of the Joseph effect from Levy walks alone via power-law switching times.

Figure from the paper full image
abstract click to expand
Two-state stochastic models, where motion alternates between distinct dynamical modes, are widely observed in complex systems. Here we study the Two-State Random Walk (TSRW), which switches between a continuous-time random walk (CTRW) rest state and a standard L'evy walk (LW) motion state, each with power-law distributed sojourn times. Using anomalous diffusion decomposition, we show that TSRWs exhibit a generic coexistence of Joseph (correlation), Noah (heavy-tailed increments), and Moses (aging) effects. Strikingly, although classical L'evy walks alone possess only the Joseph effect, both Noah and Moses effects emerge in TSRWs solely due to stochastic switching with the CTRW phase. Our results demonstrate that coupling between dynamical states can fundamentally reshape the mechanisms driving anomalous diffusion, offering a minimal yet powerful framework for transport in heterogeneous and intermittently switching environments.
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math-ph 2026-05-29

Diffusion sampling maps exactly to adiabatic transport in Score Hamiltonians

by Peter Halmos, Boris Hanin

The Score Hamiltonian: Mapping Diffusion Models to Adiabatic Transport

The fundamental limit is the ratio of squared score error to the spectral gap, yielding new density bounds and annealing schedules.

Figure from the paper full image
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We exhibit an exact correspondence between sampling with score-based diffusion models and adiabatic transport of ground states for a family of Schr\"odinger operators we call Score Hamiltonians, built from the learned score's quantum potential. We obtain novel density reconstruction bounds and principled annealing schedules via adiabatic theorems for Fokker-Planck equations with time-varying potentials. We find the fundamental limit of sampling is set by the ratio of squared score-matching error to Score Hamiltonian spectral gap - the inverse Poincar\'e constant of the data density.
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hep-ph 2026-05-29

Generative models in physics face validation gaps on accuracy and power

by Sascha Diefenbacher, Sofia Palacios Schweitzer +1 more

Generative Models and Statistical Validation

The review outlines the network framework then shows why measuring precision and statistical reliability stays difficult.

Figure from the paper full image
abstract click to expand
Generative machine learning has become an essential tool in theoretical and experimental physics, especially in the context of fast surrogates and density estimators. In this work, we first introduce the underlying framework of modern generative networks and then discuss challenges in quantifying their accuracy, precision, and statistical power.
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