Counterfactual Reasoning and Learning Systems

Denis X. Charles; Dipankar Ray; D. Max Chickering; Ed Snelson; Elon Portugaly; Joaquin Qui\~nonero-Candela; Jonas Peters; L\'eon Bottou; Patrice Simard

Counterfactual Reasoning and Learning Systems

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arxiv 1209.2355 v5 pith:GWGYF5EP submitted 2012-09-11 cs.LG cs.AIcs.IRmath.STstat.TH

Counterfactual Reasoning and Learning Systems

L\'eon Bottou , Jonas Peters , Joaquin Qui\~nonero-Candela , Denis X. Charles , D. Max Chickering , Elon Portugaly , Dipankar Ray , Patrice Simard

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Ed Snelson

This is my paper

classification cs.LG cs.AIcs.IRmath.STstat.TH

keywords systemschangeslearningsystemworkalgorithmsallowassociated

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This work shows how to leverage causal inference to understand the behavior of complex learning systems interacting with their environment and predict the consequences of changes to the system. Such predictions allow both humans and algorithms to select changes that improve both the short-term and long-term performance of such systems. This work is illustrated by experiments carried out on the ad placement system associated with the Bing search engine.

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