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Usage of multiple RTL features for Earthquake prediction

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arxiv 1905.10805 v1 pith:CNEIRZSN submitted 2019-05-26 stat.AP cs.LGeess.SPphysics.data-an

Usage of multiple RTL features for Earthquake prediction

classification stat.AP cs.LGeess.SPphysics.data-an
keywords featuresgivenapproachearthquakemodelmultiplepredictiontake
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal T4 reserved
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We construct a classification model that predicts if an earthquake with the magnitude above a threshold will take place at a given location in a time range 30-180 days from a given moment of time. A common approach is to use expert forecasts based on features like Region-Time-Length (RTL) characteristics. The proposed approach uses machine learning on top of multiple RTL features to take into account effects at various scales and to improve prediction accuracy. For historical data about Japan earthquakes 1992-2005 and predictions at locations given in this database the best model has precision up to ~ 0.95 and recall up to ~ 0.98.

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