Hot Earth or Young Venus? A nearby transiting rocky planet mystery

Venus and Earth provide astonishingly different views of the evolution of a rocky planet, raising the question of why these two rocky worlds evolved so differently. The recently discovered transiting Super-Earth LP 890-9c (TOI-4306c, SPECULOOS-2c) is a key to the question. It circles a nearby M6V star in 8.46 days. LP890-9c receives similar flux as modern Earth, which puts it very close to the inner edge of the Habitable Zone (HZ), where models differ strongly in their prediction of how long rocky planets can hold onto their water. We model the atmosphere of a hot LP890-9c at the inner edge of the HZ, where the planet could sustain several very different environments. The resulting transmission spectra differ considerably between a hot, wet exo-Earth, a steamy planet caught in a runaway greenhouse, and an exo-Venus. Distinguishing these scenarios from the planet's spectra will provide critical new insights into the evolution of hot terrestrial planets into exo-Venus. Our model and spectra are available online as a tool to plan observations. They show that observing LP890-9c can provide key insights into the evolution of a rocky planet at the inner edge of the HZ as well as the long-term future of Earth.