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Learning Optimal Conformal Classifiers
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Learning Optimal Conformal Classifiers
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Modern deep learning based classifiers show very high accuracy on test data but this does not provide sufficient guarantees for safe deployment, especially in high-stake AI applications such as medical diagnosis. Usually, predictions are obtained without a reliable uncertainty estimate or a formal guarantee. Conformal prediction (CP) addresses these issues by using the classifier's predictions, e.g., its probability estimates, to predict confidence sets containing the true class with a user-specified probability. However, using CP as a separate processing step after training prevents the underlying model from adapting to the prediction of confidence sets. Thus, this paper explores strategies to differentiate through CP during training with the goal of training model with the conformal wrapper end-to-end. In our approach, conformal training (ConfTr), we specifically "simulate" conformalization on mini-batches during training. Compared to standard training, ConfTr reduces the average confidence set size (inefficiency) of state-of-the-art CP methods applied after training. Moreover, it allows to "shape" the confidence sets predicted at test time, which is difficult for standard CP. On experiments with several datasets, we show ConfTr can influence how inefficiency is distributed across classes, or guide the composition of confidence sets in terms of the included classes, while retaining the guarantees offered by CP.
Forward citations
Cited by 6 Pith papers
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Conformal Margin Risk Minimization: An Envelope Framework for Robust Learning under Label Noise
CMRM adds a conformal quantile regularization on prediction margins to any loss, improving noisy-label classification accuracy up to 3.39% across methods and benchmarks while preserving performance at zero noise.
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ST-BCP: Tightening Coverage Bound for Backward Conformal Prediction via Non-Conformity Score Transformation
ST-BCP tightens the coverage bound in Backward Conformal Prediction by applying a computable data-dependent transformation to nonconformity scores, reducing the average gap from 4.20% to 1.12% on benchmarks while prov...
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Uncertainty-Aware Intention Prediction for Human-to-Robot Assembly Teleoperation
Human-to-robot transfer learning with conformal prediction improves robot assembly action segmentation Edit score from 70.50 to 80.70 using only 16 robot demonstrations.
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RareCP: Regime-Aware Retrieval for Efficient Conformal Prediction
RareCP improves interval efficiency for time series conformal prediction by retrieving and weighting regime-specific calibration examples while adapting to drift and maintaining coverage.
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Robust Conditional Conformal Prediction via Branched Normalizing Flow
Branched Normalizing Flow improves conditional coverage robustness of conformal prediction under distribution shift by normalizing test inputs to the calibration distribution and mapping prediction sets back.
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Structure-Adaptive Conformal Inference for Large-Scale Out-of-Distribution Testing
Introduces SCQ and P-TAMS for structure-adaptive conformal inference under pairwise exchangeability, claiming finite-sample FDR control for large-scale OOD testing.
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