Constraining Exoplanet Metallicities and Aerosols with ARIEL: An Independent Study by the Contribution to ARIEL Spectroscopy of Exoplanets (CASE) Team

Launching in 2028, ESA's Atmospheric Remote-sensing Exoplanet Large-survey (ARIEL) survey of $\sim$1000 transiting exoplanets will build on the legacies of Kepler and TESS and complement JWST by placing its high precision exoplanet observations into a large, statistically-significant planetary population context. With continuous 0.5--7.8~$\mu$m coverage from both FGS (0.50--0.55, 0.8--1.0, and 1.0--1.2~$\mu$m photometry; 1.25--1.95~$\mu$m spectroscopy) and AIRS (1.95--7.80~$\mu$m spectroscopy), ARIEL will determine atmospheric compositions and probe planetary formation histories during its 3.5-year mission. NASA's proposed Contribution to ARIEL Spectroscopy of Exoplanets (CASE) would be a subsystem of ARIEL's FGS instrument consisting of two visible-to-infrared detectors, associated readout electronics, and thermal control hardware. FGS, to be built by the Polish Academy of Sciences' Space Research Centre, will provide both fine guiding and visible to near-infrared photometry and spectroscopy, providing powerful diagnostics of atmospheric aerosol contribution and planetary albedo, which play a crucial role in establishing planetary energy balance. The CASE team presents here an independent study of the capabilities of ARIEL to measure exoplanetary metallicities, which probe the conditions of planet formation, and FGS to measure scattering spectral slopes, which indicate if an exoplanet has atmospheric aerosols (clouds and hazes), and geometric albedos, which help establish planetary climate. Our design reference mission simulations show that ARIEL could measure the mass-metallicity relationship of its 1000-planet single-visit sample to $>7.5\sigma$ and that FGS could distinguish between clear, cloudy, and hazy skies and constrain an exoplanet's atmospheric aerosol composition to $>5\sigma$ for hundreds of targets, providing statistically-transformative science for exoplanet atmospheres.