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arxiv 0704.1808 v3 pith:GYX4KPIV submitted 2007-04-13 gr-qc

Tests of Bayesian Model Selection Techniques for Gravitational Wave Astronomy

classification gr-qc
keywords modelselectiondatagravitationalnumbersourceswavebayesian
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal T4 reserved
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The analysis of gravitational wave data involves many model selection problems. The most important example is the detection problem of selecting between the data being consistent with instrument noise alone, or instrument noise and a gravitational wave signal. The analysis of data from ground based gravitational wave detectors is mostly conducted using classical statistics, and methods such as the Neyman-Pearson criteria are used for model selection. Future space based detectors, such as the \emph{Laser Interferometer Space Antenna} (LISA), are expected to produced rich data streams containing the signals from many millions of sources. Determining the number of sources that are resolvable, and the most appropriate description of each source poses a challenging model selection problem that may best be addressed in a Bayesian framework. An important class of LISA sources are the millions of low-mass binary systems within our own galaxy, tens of thousands of which will be detectable. Not only are the number of sources unknown, but so are the number of parameters required to model the waveforms. For example, a significant subset of the resolvable galactic binaries will exhibit orbital frequency evolution, while a smaller number will have measurable eccentricity. In the Bayesian approach to model selection one needs to compute the Bayes factor between competing models. Here we explore various methods for computing Bayes factors in the context of determining which galactic binaries have measurable frequency evolution. The methods explored include a Reverse Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) algorithm, Savage-Dickie density ratios, the Schwarz-Bayes Information Criterion (BIC), and the Laplace approximation to the model evidence. We find good agreement between all of the approaches.

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Cited by 4 Pith papers

Reviewed papers in the Pith corpus that reference this work. Sorted by Pith novelty score.

  1. Impact of Spacecraft Orbit Uncertainties and Velocity Mismodeling on the LISA Gravitational-Wave Response

    gr-qc 2026-07 unverdicted novelty 6.0

    The work provides the first quantitative characterization of how spacecraft orbit uncertainties and velocity mismodeling propagate into LISA gravitational-wave response mismatches and parameter biases.

  2. Neural posterior estimation of Galactic Binary signals for the LISA mission

    astro-ph.IM 2026-06 unverdicted novelty 6.0

    Conditional normalizing flows perform likelihood-free parameter estimation for single and overlapping LISA galactic binaries, generating thousands of posterior samples per second after training on simulations.

  3. Inferring the population properties of galactic binaries from LISA's stochastic foreground

    astro-ph.HE 2026-02 unverdicted novelty 6.0

    A neural posterior estimator trained on simulated LISA foreground spectra recovers galactic binary population parameters, including total number, with good accuracy in validation tests.

  4. Bayesian Analysis of Gravitational Wave Microlensing Effects from Galactic Double White Dwarfs

    astro-ph.GA 2026-04 unverdicted novelty 5.0

    Bayesian analysis of simulated Taiji observations shows microlensing from lenses above 10^5 solar masses can be distinguished from unlensed DWD signals when separation is below 3 Einstein radii, while lower masses or ...